Bitcoin investors are flipping – how much BTC and crypto should I buy?

Bitcoin investors are flipping – how much BTC and crypto should I buy?

all right guys welcome back to the channel today we’re looking at Bitcoin the changing structure when it comes to the Bitcoin bull market and a caution here and a warning on how this particular period of the market plays out and how most miss out on the opportunities but more importantly how not to get destroyed at this stage of the market I’m going to get into that in just a moment but of course we need to get into the traditional markets looking at the stock markets and how everything is progressing in the real estate cycle so a few updates there first before I get deep and heavy into Bitcoin and then I look at the total altcoin market cap so if you are new hit that like button and subscribe to the channel it’s your home of macro cycle analysis we cover Bitcoin cryptos the stock markets and the real estate cycle very few do that to me in my analysis this the real estate cycle is the key to the entire game but let’s just kick it off with what’s going on this week with the volatility and then I’ll get into what I think is happening for for coin and that changing sentiment and that shift when it comes to trading in this type of environment this week we got volatility we can check it out from the Forex factory website just looking at the announcements or the the data economic data that comes out from the US basically every single month and essentially it’s like the most important thing to look at for the week until the next meeting so personally you do you but this is not something that I put a lot of attention to the thing I look at here is it gives me a reason as to why maybe the Market’s not moving as as much as You’ expected to when you lead into some of these announcements and you you can kind of tell that some of these announcements are coming and the Market’s like waiting to see what happens from that uh announcement and on a short-term basis that has volatility but in a longer term sense the trends are going to do what the trends do and that’s what I’ve noticed over many many years trading in the markets this is just short-term blips in the overall cycle in the overall trend of where the market is going regardless of high inflation low inflation High interest rates low interest rates High PPI low PPI CPI you name it it’s the same thing over and over again and of course that’s how I trade the markets you guys can do whatever you wish that has worked for me and I’m just sharing with you uh what I have leared over the the course of time to hopefully save you some time ppi is up this week CPI is out this week core CPI is also out this week so you’re going to see some of the market either leading up to that pause and wait to see what’s happening into that news announcement as we can see from the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Dow Jones also similar as well and then once you get the announcements you’ll see some sort of potential volatility in that move and then the trends continue from that point now the Dow Jones has put in eight days of gains so it’s not necessarily the same in terms of our swing chart don’t worry about that just looking at 8 day gain so basically green 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 yesterday was a red day so it was losses of. 17 the main point here is when you see these types of signals especially when they are within 3% of a threeyear high getting quite specific there you typically see positive results over the next 6 months over the next 12 months it’s about a 70% hit rate so about 7 out of 10 I like to see it somewhere 80 and above 70 is not the worst but once you start getting around 50 60% then it’s basically just a coin toss so most of these results says 42 signals going back to 1900 so 120 years of data 42 signals with this type of signal 8 days of gains in a row I’m not looking at short-term stuff here what happens over the next week or two that has shown up to be about a 70% hit rate uh but over the next few months it’s looking relatively good and then of course over the 12 months again about a 70% hit rate that you would see prices higher from that signal so 12 months from that signal you typically 7 out of 10 times see prices higher over the next 12 months so yet another piece of data that we can add to the uh the collection of the data that I present every day on the channel just make sure you do subscribe now over to the stock markets again another Soo Green Day here basically flat let’s call it that but the trend is your friend trend is up and I want to just take a quick look back here as a pattern for these lows coming into the market hopefully you can use it for your own TR trading and your own analysis check out where how this bottom formed it hit 50% dead on the 50% level corrected in this case a higher low but the the Dow Jones had a a slightly lower low but a higher low on the macro there or you know the longer term time frame we get to that moment and then the power move away the breakout of the 50% level so so far so good even if this is to correct from this point we’ve got now two key areas you’ve got the low and then the higher lows to watch out for for a correction breakdown of these levels would just mean that it could take longer to get back to those highs if this corrects holds above those well then that’s a stronger Market again so S&P 500 looking relatively healthy the uh NASDAQ also looking relatively healthy you can see the same pattern here higher lows forming break out of 50% break out of that top that’s what you want to see for some strength note that the volume is dropping off here as the market heads higher can be one of two things bit annoying I know that but at least if you understand it then you can put it into your toolbox a rising market on lowering volume can mean that the supply is drying up and there are still buyers present so there’s not as much Supply on the market the Market’s still going up which means there’s still demand out there so far we’ve seen a healthy recovery from the S&P and from the NASDAQ if you remember back a month ago this was looking quite fearful everyone was out of their minds thinking that this was another turn in the market that things were about to get pre pretty damn ugly and we about to head back down past the old alltime high what I recall is that there was less people talking a big bearish game at that time than what there was back in October 2023 than what there was back in March of 2023 and then October of 2022 which was this low here what that signals to me is that more players are getting more bullish on the market and although they’ve missed out all these levels they’re starting to come to grips with the overall bull market which then tells me in a longer term time frame here that we’re coming towards the end of this move we’ve looked at the 18year cycle basically over the next couple of years probably higher prices that’s where everyone starts to get really damn bullish that this thing can never go down that’s a time to be fearful so we might be in the middle of that transition now at least for the traditional markets where many are coming to grips with the bull market but they’re all in this hope that the market is going to eventually go down and they get to set their position again which we’ve talked about typically doesn’t happen which typically I know it’s always typically because there’s no guarantees here but typically leads to singled digigit Corrections and on that note here is your singled digigit correction 8.5% it happened now it’s bounced back single- digigit Corrections are most common in Bull markets you get some double digits and sometimes over 20% but the most common is single or are single digit Corrections D Jones had that slightly lower low but it’s now pushed higher again pushed above 50% now over to bitcoin and the Traders warning here the caution when it comes to either trading these markets or trying to get set in positions from here now I’m going to cover quite a few things here pretty quickly pay attention we’re looking at this from the point of view of Traders and longer term investors or you know if you’re looking to get in here and then hold it for this next stage of the cycle whether it’s 6 months 12 months 18 months I’ll let you be the judge of that but in this period you can see that there is no clear Trend now if I bring up this chart here there’s a few rules to to go through know the 8020 rule the 8020 essentially means the market does nothing for about 80% of the time and then moves for the other 20% of the time you can see that pretty evidently here that was 7 months of basically sideways except when you’re in the market it feels like something’s happening all the time there were there was 2 months down there was 2 weeks up there was two months down and then we started to get this high low that was it was basically a 7mon period until we got a clear Trend happening and then the clear Trend pretty much lasted from mid October until early December and then essentially it went sideways again but again within that period it was a lot of chopping and churning unless you’re a short-term Trader you can make money from that provided there’s volatility if you were a long-term position holder trying to get trying to set your position and hold it for the longer term it can be pretty tricky because you’re holding into these moves after you’ve seen it move for 6 weeks now you got six weeks of nothing basically just sideways grind you might be making 10% up and then 15% down and then another 5% up so it gets uh pretty nasty for your psychology uh as a position Trader here so that’s the first thing 8020 rule hang in there don’t get wrecked so that’s for the longer terms if you’re a short-term Trader here because there’s no clear Trend then your positions get chopped up so unless you’ve got a way to identify the trend I use the Gan swing indicator link to that’s in the top of the video description then it’s going to be hard to identify what’s happening next right now on the weekly Trends are down you can see those lower highs lower lows but eventually this has to change and then start to uh move to the upside put in an uptrend so unless you’ve got a way to identify this trend personally I would probably stay out of the markets if you’re got if you’ve got a longer term View and you just see this as one big Trend one move up a correction and then you’ve got a A View that’s going to go up from this Point well then you can easily start to get your position set and like I said in the intro I’ve got something for you as well this is setting your positions looking at a pyramid strategy Bitcoin buys under 60 Grand was or are top tier entries I think for this wave four obviously not for the entire bull market under 25 Grand was the best but at this stage I think these are probably the best opportunities if you can get anything under 60 that’s where we were looking at when it broke down from these levels and it was pretty quick movements under there but the next stage is 60 to 65 with Bitcoin currently sitting at 63 what you want to avoid is getting too heavy as a market increases you want to be heavier at the bottom lighter at the top pyramiding for risk management is essential to avoid being too topheavy which is the main cause for investors or most investors and Traders losing from a winning position so you can basically have a a winning position you know you’re sort of buying up some here but you start to hold it it breaks out you get more excited because that’s what happens in the market everything gets far more exciting and you buy more so you maybe have 1,000 bucks here and you end up buying 2,000 bucks higher up now if this Market just turns down a little bit this winning position turns into a a loss and of course that one’s going to turn into a loss it’s a paper loss until you sell but typically what happens in the final stages everyone gets a little bit too confident too cocky and they go in real heavy at the top so just has to roll over a little bit and the 10% loss up here uh basically negates any win or any paper profits from the purchases down low and then you’re basically in a losing position that high up this isn’t talked about much it’s uh very unsexy when it comes to trading and investing people think you just buy and then just sell at the top without understanding the MTH behind setting up a plan and risk management you’re doomed to lose in the market without understanding how to position yourself accordingly so I’ve got a simple plan here here is your pyramid if it goes under those 50 well the Market’s giving you that number now 56k then you do what you can buy up as much as you possibly can maybe set a a number of say 500 bucks just using numbers here then between the sort of 56 and 60k level maybe go in with 300 then between 60k and 65k going with 200 every day and then anywhere between sort of 65 and 70 going with 100 and then 50 bucks and so on and so forth it’s you you put in whatever numbers work for you there but that’s the idea of a pyramid strategy getting in heavier at the bottom and lighter uh as the market goes up so that you’re not top heavy which then leads to Major losses even if you did buy in at lower prices now that’s another quick mini lesson if you do want to go into more detail with that so you can make the most out of the next stage of the cycle get your position set at this point go to Tia premium link is in the top of the video description that’s the stuff we go through as long-term Traders and investors in the market to understand how to set your positions up basically set your portfolios up in the right way so that you don’t fall victim to the same old crap that happens every other cycle buying and selling without any sort of plan and basically giving it all back to the market we’ve looked at the uh the choppy periods for BTC at this point in time you can see it on the chart the trends the trends are a mess they’re chopping Traders in and out breaking tops breaking bottoms uh losing volatility basically rang is Contracting which makes it very difficult to trade tra in and then all of a sudden you get some pumps out to the upside so if you are looking for something clearer cleaner getting rid of all this other data then look for a break of $65,000 65 $655,000 that is the key Next Level it hasn’t changed yet because the low has not changed yet you can see it bounced off the weekly swing low here 56k 562k from that top that’s why 65,000 is the next key level a recap on the rules know the 8020 Market will spend 80% of the time chopping sideways try to avoid those times unless you want to get set in positions for the trend now then spend 20% of the time moving in that Trend that can be long or short don’t get wrecked try to survive as long as you can that’ll allow you to learn the most amount of lessons from the market the more lessons you can learn you can put that into your own resume your own personal Journey here so that you can survive longer than the majority which then helps you build that portfolio hard trading is a choppy market and easy trading is a clearer Trend how do you confirm the trend I use the gain swing indicator you might have other strategies there for yourself so that leads us over to the total cryptocurrency market cap now it’s in a similar position to BTC however it’s below its previous top so this is the total cryptocurrency market cap Bitcoin included ethereum included stable coins included $2.23 trillion it’s still sitting above 2 trillion 2.1 which is the 50% level from this entire move so still a pretty positive position here and the possibility of a higher low forming we’ve got our swing chart on the weekly there you can see we’ve got this higher low potentially forming I would look for a shorter term breakout of the next 50% level to confirm this so we look at the low here at 2 trillion to the top here at 27 right through the middle there 2.4 so closes Above This top here 2.2 . 417 so I call it 2.42 that’s going to be some good solid consolidation for higher prices could it take a month two months of course it’s taken about two months to get to this point right now so who knows maybe it’s a couple of weeks to get above another couple of weeks to consolidate another couple of weeks or one or two weeks to get back and test that high that takes us somewhere into late June or early July as we’ve looked at before on the channel now if it is to break it maybe it sits back under we just don’t know what’s going to happen on the black side of the chart so we just have to be prepared for what occurs the the swing indicator Keeps Us prepared especially for that Trend and being above the 50% level tells us that we’re in a stronger position even if we get those Corrections and they’re probably the good times to be buying on those dips especially when the Market’s in a stronger position so moving forward from there uh we can still see it’s above this price here March 2022 so above those monthly swing tops and it’s looking to position itself above that level so things are still looking pretty pretty damn solid for the total cryptocurrency market cap the total cryptocurrency market cap the altcoin market cap without Bitcoin e and Stables also looking like it’s in a relatively stable position here again the caution there is a lot of chop in the market we have not broken above the 50% level however higher lows are forming and what we’ve seen with this pattern in the past is eventually it breaks out so the probabilities that I can see to the upside here however there are still warnings because it hasn’t hasn’t confirmed yet and it’s below the 50% level and so while we’re in this position it’s prudent to be cautious to the downside but I think longer term if we look out to the next couple of months we’re definitely going to see some upside I shouldn’t say definitely but it seems likely that we would see more upside which is why I’ve been talking about positioning yourself into strong altcoins over the last month particularly as many have put in higher lows from that dump on April 13th again if you need receipts I’ve got them on my X go and follow X over there you can see a lot of the content that I’m not able to post here on YouTube and of course uh follow Michael’s Channel as well looking at this major move into the top now pulling back into this wave four we’ll look at this in future videos other than that thanks again guys for joining us on the channel like And subscribe I’ll see you back here at the next one till then take care and peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin & Economic Announcements this week
07:30 Bitcoin price analysis
10:00 Best BTC buys & how much to buy
14:00 Altcoin / Crypto MC

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews