October had two sides to the oil price chart – the first 25 days saw growth to almost $57 per barrel of crude oil. But the last week or so has seen a drop in oil prices, currently trading at $54.18. Will the weakening dollar, inventory builds and a slowing global economy pull the oil price further down in November – watch our analysis to find out!
Our oil price analysis this month takes into consideration the important events from October, as the forces having a bearish effect on the oil price forecast gathered strength, despite the move to $57.
The prolonged trade war between the two largest world economies seems to be having a smaller effect on the crude oil price of late, as signs of (an initial) deal surfaced and markets are expecting some sort of agreement to be signed in the coming month. It was supposed to happen in Chile but due to unrest the event where Trump and Xi were going to meet has been postponed with a new venue being looked for.
But moving aside from expectations, we move on to more specific facts that are impacting the oil chart now – an inventory build in the U.S. by 5.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 25. An increase of about 500,000 barrels was expected.
Our oil chart analysis also takes note of news from two key oil companies that could impact the oil price in November 2019. First is the largest IPO in stock market history, as Saudi Arabia’s state oil company floats part of its assets and opens them to investment. The move has been delayed several times and signals the strength of the oil sector and the expected profits it can generate.
At the same time Royal Dutch Shell has given a warning to investors that the economic forecast wasn’t all rosy and this could pare its $25 billion share buyback programme, making them also revise their oil price predictions.
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