Nuanced case of Claiming REPS with full time W-2 (California)

I'm explroing the long shot of being able to claim REPS. I make $150k in my fully remote, full time W2 position (non RE related). I work about 10-20 hours a week with consistent slots each day for these 10-20 hours. My paystubs say 40 hours a week, and my contract says "full time". I spend more than 750 hours a year in RE, but the difficult part would be proving I spend more in RE than my W2.

I am a licensed real estate agent, and I have an LLC that holds a GC license. At the end of this year I will have more actual hours spent in RE than my W2, and will have spent 500 hours on my own rental properties. My LLC or RE license won't get me near the $150k W2 income this year. My wife makes about $250k-290k in income, so sombined we make about $400k to $450k a year.

Questions:

1)Given I follow all the rules and track my hours diligently, do I still have a high chance of being audited and failing the REPS status?

2) Using getting $100k back on my taxes, am I facing a penalty of 20% on that amount (plus 6% interest)? Is there a good chance I can get that 20% waived?

Thanks!