Raoul Pal-“Why I am Buying So Much Ethereum In 2024”

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Each draw down in crypto the overall Market Falls less and you can use Bitcoin as the best example each time it just Falls a little bit less so maybe next time around it falls 60% and not 75% and previous time was 87% the previous time to that was

97% you know eth fell in 2018 97% this time it fell 85% maybe next time it’s 75% um you know so so volatility does get dampened as more participants come into the space and the more activity and eventually once you get kind of financial Market activity where let’s say equities are

Tokenized and stuff like that well then there’s ongoing demand for for activity on chain as well so it’s not just based around liquidity it’s just about General activity uh using blockchain technology so uh look I don’t we’re not out of the woods yet my guess is we have to keep

Going through this miserable cycle of I I’m rich I’m poor every few years uh until maybe 2030 if eth does what Bitcoin did last cycle then it’s three to four times the high of the previous cycle so therefore you know that kind of yard stick gives us 15,000 plus is that

Doesn’t sound unreasonable that’s a 10x from here that’s possible that would be within the Realms of normality and then something like Bitcoin maybe it does slight less because it’s a more mature ecosystem and something like Solano would do significantly more so that’s how I think about it um I think the overall

Space can go from a trillion today to maybe 10 trillion at the peak of the next cycle rul pal outlined his assessment of the probable future of crypto Market Cycles attributing a 60% chance to a regular cycle akin to the last one or perhaps more reminiscent of the 2017 cycle which witnessed some

Friends he considers there to be a 20% likelihood that the current cycle might be compressed in time due to overwhelming retail demand potentially leading to a shorter cycle than anticipated in a recent discussion with crypto Enthusiast Scott melker the macroeconomics expert in CEO of real Vision expressed that although he

Perceives the current market cycle as typical there’s a 20% probability it could escalate into an enormous bubble cycle so that’s a 10x for the whole Space possibly could be a 5x but you know it’s something of that magnitude if we’re writing a hypothesis that more and more people will use blockchain

Technology um for underlying use cases if that’s the case yeah the media narrative has always hated this and I don’t know why that is um they’re always skeptical journalists by Nature generally skeptical people and so they were skeptical of the internet they were skeptical you know they’re skeptical of EV cars they’ve been

Skeptical they’re skeptical of everything um so I think that continues for a while and but we keep looking back and go look how far we’ve come and you know it’s another few trillion in price and value and stuff like that and then it becomes unarguable I mean there’s no

Journalist who says well I think the internet’s a fad or the mobile phones are fad but they did and there’s articles all over the place of them saying that back in the day so you know it’s just it’s just how it goes if you’re I this is a very

Interesting technology because we were able to front run the institutions it’s the first time the individuals have had the power to participate in a Cutting Edge technology before the VCS and the and the big institutions um so it’s a bit weird for all of us to be fighting the news flow

Normally we’d only get the opportunity to invest when the news flow has changed and you know Microsoft IPO comes out and then we can invest in that so it’s just very different we’re having to learn the different skill of being the most hated participants until we’re proven right biggest problem new

Investors faces themselves okay right it’s like fomo and excessive narratives are all the things that will get you into trouble you need to always step back understand what risks you’re taking why you’re taking those risks and try and fight the fomo have a plan and try and

Stick to that plan yes you can adapt it and then be careful where you get your information from you know there’s there’s a lot of trusted people in the space but there’s a lot of people that seem alluring because they want to tell you you’re going to get rich now yes

There’s plenty of opportunity to make money in all of this but just choose trusted sources be careful who you follow and don’t become trapped in one narrative things change this is technology um it’s market so be adaptable those things will help more than anything else of course you

Will see regulation of course you will see sell-offs of course you’ll see blowups that’s all part of being in financial markets and a new space so expect all of those expect that you will be feeling really miserable with yourself because your tokens are down 75% in three years time

Expect that to be normal so I bought my Bitcoin at 200 I sold out two two and a half thousand I’m like listen I’ve made 10x my money this is an amazing investment it then went up another 10x in the next six months I mean that’s enough to drive you

Insane um but that’s what will happen to you you know you will close out too early you’ll close out too late all of this stuff it’s okay the best thing to do is get yourself an education in how to in how to invest and how to

Think about this stuff I speak to a lot of the institutions both directly with my work at real Vision but also with my asset management company exponential age asset management and we’ve found that it’s the latter that everybody has pretty much done the H workor the Pioneers just keep working through the

Bare Market again Fidelity Franklin Templeton a whole bunch of these guys uh Texas teachers retirement system you know they’ve been involved all the way through most other people have done the work so actually what they need is liquidity and price so there’s not much liquidity around now we talked about before so if

Nobody’s got much money then it’s difficult to invest money but as the stock market start getting closer to all-time highs people start making money um let’s say that eventually the FED cut rates well then money starts coming into these kind of assets so I think most

People have done the work on it now they understand it um and so I think we will see a lot of participation from institutions um in this cycle much more than last cycle there was quite a lot last cycle quite a lot but it was a lot

Of family offices last cycle this cycle I think we’ll see a lot of the the pensions endowments stuff like that if people are actually buying ethereum and they were staking it doing all of this stuff in spot you’ve got much more impact in the space because Futures yes

The arbitrages will try and keep the price in line so it does create demand for actual ethereum but not necessarily as much demand because people can just trade the Futures themselves if you want ethereum to be worth $5 trillion well then you going to need that the finance system to

Use ethereum for settlements and smart contracts and everything else to get there so yeah it’s a good thing as the market is recovering and we’re in Spring and normally the Q4 is a strong quarter if you introduce spot Bitcoin and spot eth ETFs into a rising market you will

Start to suck in the investment advisers the individuals who found it too complicated to hold their own wallets and all of that kind of stuff so it really depends what the market is doing but I think on balance it’s positive but really it’ll show up in 2024 2025 when

The Cycle’s fully underway it just makes an easy way for people who are not used to the digital side of things to just use equities and get their exposure so yeah look overall longer term it’s very positive just yet another onramp um short term depends what the price is

Doing price is strong we’ll get a bit of a panic in from the investment advisor and stuff like that