Crypto’s Best President: Biden or Trump? Anthony Scaramucci Reveals

Anthony Scaramucci is the founder of Skybridge Capital. We discuss:
– Takeaways from Davos 2024
– Jamie Dimon’s hate for Bitcoin
– Bitcoin Spot ETF launch impact
– Ethereum Spot ETF
– Biden vs Trump 2024 Election & who is better for Crypto moving forward
– Vivek & Trump CBDCs
– SkyBridge’s Crypto Investment Strategy
– Fed, Interest Rates, and Market Outlook

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⏰ Time Stamps ⏰
00:00 Intro
01:40 Takeaways from Davos 2024
03:53 Jamie Dimon vs Bitcoin
07:30 JPMorgan’s crypto strategy
09:17 Biden & Trump & Crypto
12:59 Bitcoin Spot ETF launch impact
15:20 Wall Street takeover of Crypto
20:00 Skybridge’s Crypto Strategy
22:40 Outlook on Fed & Markets
25:30 2024 Presidential Election
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– If Trump wins that election, obviously those two people will have less influence. Elizabeth Warren will still be in the Congress but Gary Gensler will no longer be the SEC Chairman. So there’ll be a new group of elites that are running the SEC.

So the question is though, will that be better or not? I don’t honestly know the answer because Donald Trump has spoken very negatively about Bitcoin. – This content is brought to you by Uphold, which is a great crypto platform that I’ve been using since 2018. Uphold has all the top cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and all the Altcoins. In fact, they have 260-plus cryptocurrencies on their platform. You can also trade precious metals, stablecoins and 37 fiat currencies.

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Your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I have with me today Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder of SkyBridge Capital and SALT Conference as well as an author. Anthony, great to have you back on. – It’s great to be here with you, man. I love your whole setup.

I like the bowl in the background. Of course, I like your Bitcoin clock when it’s blinking green and heading north. But God bless you, thank you for having me. – Yeah Anthony, you know I’m a big fan. We’ve spoken over the years. I noticed you just got back from Davos.

How was it and were there any major takeaways for you? – Well, let me set the scene for you though. In 2023 when I got back from Davos, I was interviewed by Bill Cohan from Puck. He said “What’d you learn in Davos?” I said “Well, Bitcoin’s going up.”

And he said “What do you mean by that?” I said “Well, I didn’t meet a person at Davos, I didn’t meet a member of the White Badge Delegation,” those are the people that are the diplomats and the heads of state and policymakers and central bankers and CEOs of large companies,

“I didn’t meet one of those people that liked Bitcoin or thought Bitcoin had any legs.” In fact, many of those people were telling me that Bitcoin was a dead asset and it was a road to nowhere and soon to be a ghost chain and so what I find about Davos

Is the collective wisdom of the elites because they’re trying to impress each other and that was the trend at the time, they all hopped out on that and they got it wrong and so this year, there was a muted situation in Davos. So meaning if you talked to somebody,

They’d say “Oh, I hear Bitcoin had a great year but really who cares? It’s an insignificant asset and the blockchain itself is insignificant and Web3’s not going anywhere and we’re traditional finance people.” And then of course, Jamie Dimon gave a pretty high profile interview on CNBC where

He routed Bitcoin and other blockchain-oriented assets. So I take all of that as extremely positive and so that’s just my view. I feel like we’re gonna have another great year in Bitcoin, not just because of the ETF and the halving but because we still have fence-sitters and naysayers

And the way markets work, Tone, is that you got fence-sitters and naysayers, as they come off the fence and they stop naysaying, the price goes up. – Right. – If you have no fence-sitters and you have no naysayers, then you and I gotta be worried. We gotta talk about that being a top.

– And Anthony, I almost treat Jamie Dimon now as a contrarian indicator. Like if he’s continuing his FUD, I am bullish because I watched this man since 2017 say the same thing and same thing but Bitcoin continues to grow in price and adoption. Now we have the ETFs, it’s historic.

So it’s like, okay Jamie, continue please. – Yeah, well listen, he’s one of the smartest people in finance. But he’s got a vested interest in what he’s doing and he’s also got a way of thinking that has made him and his family over a billion dollars.

He’s arguably one of the most successful financial services executives in US economic history sitting on top of the largest, most successful bank in the history of the United States. So I have an en enormous amount of respect for him. But what I do find with people like Jamie,

Of his vintage, of his era and I think Jamie’s 67 now, if you don’t do the homework on Bitcoin and you’re opining on it, you’re probably opining negatively because of your life experience. But if you do the homework and contemporaries of Jamie would include people like Stan Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio,

Those men, they did their homework on Bitcoin and they drew a different conclusion and I would say something to you that I would hope your viewers and listeners would contemplate. The more homework you do on Bitcoin, the more you go towards Bitcoin. I sort of feel like Bitcoin research and Bitcoin

Due diligence is a one-way ticket towards Bitcoin. I have yet to find somebody that says “You know, I read everything. I got steeped in the understanding of the code. I got steeped in the understanding of the network and the decentralized nature of the network and the fact that it hasn’t been hacked

And has been up and running for 14 years. I did all the work and I hate Bitcoin.” I have yet to hear anybody do that. So you know, we’ll get there. Jamie’s an example of somebody that probably needs to do the homework. Larry Fink on the other hand,

Two years ago I met with Larry in Abu Dhabi and we were in the lobby of the Four Seasons Hotel together. He was very negative on Bitcoin. – Right. – And he said he was positive on stablecoins. He had just made an investment in Circle but he was very, very negative on Bitcoin

And here we are two years later, he’s all-in and he’s talking about the tokenization of assets, the digitization of assets and he’s trying to make IBIT, which is the BlackRock ETF, the largest Bitcoin ETF. In fact, if you took the 11 Bitcoin ETFs, this has been the most successful launch.

– Right. – In terms of aggregate dollars in ETF history. So I admire Larry, you know? ‘Cause Larry, you know what they say, smart people, when the facts change or they’ve been influenced by greater knowledge, they change their decisions, you know? You don’t have to stay in a certain realm

If that realm is no longer accurate. I can’t tell you how many times in my life I’ve gotten something wrong and what’s the move? You gotta make an adaptation and you have to admit that you’re wrong and go in a different direction. So I admire Larry Fink for that.

– And not to focus too much on Jamie but at the same time, while he’s saying all these things, JPMorgan is involved as a participant with ETFs. They’re testing DeFi with Avalanche. They’ve been invested in Consensys, which of course built Ethereum. So it’s fascinating that these two things are happening in parallel.

Is Jamie almost at the point where it would be embarrassing for him to switch his opinion because he’s made such a hard stance? – It’s a good point, yeah. I don’t think so. I think Jamie’s a self-confident guy, very secure. I think if he changes his opinion, he’ll say

“Hey, I got that wrong, I’m gonna change my opinion.” I don’t think he’s gonna inject too much pride into that decision-making. Something else is going on actually. There’s pressure on him from regulators. He’s gotta deal with the Elizabeth Warrens of the world. There’s pressure in the system as a traditional finance representative.

But listen, you know this and I know this. JPMorgan, as you mentioned, they’re an AP on the ETFs for people. They’re producing research on Bitcoin. They have their own coin. They have built an element of their blockchain. You can call, if you have an account at JPMorgan in the private bank

And you call them and say “Hi, unsolicited, I’d like to buy 25 or $100,000 worth of Bitcoin,” something like that, no problem. They’ll buy it for you and they’ll put that CUSIP in your account. You’ll sit there with the Blackstone Bitcoin Trust in a JPMorgan account. – Yeah. – Absolutely no problem.

– Right, yeah, well they definitely want to make money and we’ll see what else they decide to do with crypto. Speaking of Elizabeth Warren, I’d love to get your thoughts because we’re gonna talk a bit about politics and the upcoming election cycle. We’ve seen this very hard stance from Elizabeth Warren,

Obviously under the Biden Administration as well, there’s been a lot of knee-jerk reactions to crypto and look, maybe FTX didn’t help that. But then you have Gary Gensler who’s under the control of Elizabeth Warren, he’s losing in court but he’s not given up. – Yeah. – Do you think this thing ends

After the 2024 election? – Well if Trump wins that election, obviously those two people will have less influence. Elizabeth Warren will still be in the Congress but Gary Gensler will no longer be the SEC Chairman and so there’ll be a new group of elites that are running the SEC.

So the question is though will that be better or not? I don’t honestly know the answer because Donald Trump has spoken very negatively about Bitcoin. Now Vivek Ramaswamy has convinced Donald Trump that he should never have a central bank digital currency. So Trump is behind that now.

I think Trump also made some money on these NFTs. – [Tony] Yeah, I was gonna ask you about that. – Maybe that’s gonna open his mind to the world of digital assets and Web3. But I don’t think 80-year-old people, Donald Trump, 75-year-old Elizabeth Warren, 80-year-old Joe Biden are the right people

To make regulatory decisions about this asset class. So I don’t necessarily think a Republican win is gonna be better. It may end up being worse in some ways. So we’ll have to see as it relates to crypto in general. Now what’s really interesting is yesterday, Gensler came out and said “Well,

Despite the fact that we approved against my greater wishes, we approved the ETF, I am now letting you know that that may be the last one. I’m not gonna approve the Ethereum ETF.” And there’ll be lawsuits about the Ethereum ETF but I’ll just give you his brand of thinking.

If he approves the ETF, then every one of those pillows behind you is gonna get an ETF, you know? And I don’t think he wants that and so we can argue about it and he could lose the court cases but that doesn’t mean

He doesn’t have tricks up his sleeve to delay this stuff. That Bitcoin ETF should have been approved in 2014. – [Tony] Yeah. – And it would’ve saved retail investors. It created the Grayscale debacle with the 2% fees and the discount and the surplus and all that stuff that happened

To the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust because it wasn’t an ETF. All of that stuff could have been avoided but we’re not in it anymore for protecting the investor. We’re not in it anymore for advancing financial innovation. We’re in it for politics and that really sucks for the country

Because I have met with people from around the world, particularly those in the UAE, I’ve met with regulators and the regulators say “Yeah, no, our politicians and our ruler is agnostic to our regulatory process.” If it’s good for the country and it’s safe and sound and it’s transparent, we’re good.

There’s nobody calling jawboning, “Oh, I woke up this morning, don’t like crypto. Let’s ban Bitcoin in a country that has 22% of the world’s GDP.” – Now these ETFs going live, certainly historic. Do you feel we’ve crossed the chasm of Bitcoin and crypto going mainstream? There’s no longer any type of

Hesitation or psychological barrier? You know, I don’t know about this stuff, right? Or it’s too complicated for me to try to buy it on Coinbase but now it’s, hey, BlackRock has it, Fidelity has it. I know these names, I trust these names. Hi everyone, pardon the interruption. I’m Tony Edward, the founder

And host of “The Thinking Crypto Podcast.” I have a huge favor to ask you. If you haven’t subscribed as yet on YouTube or the podcast platforms, hit that Subscribe button, hit the Thumbs Up button, hit the Notification Bell on the YouTube platform and on Spotify or Apple or wherever you get your podcasts,

Please leave a five star rating and review. It supports the podcast. It allows me to bring great quality content to you. Thank you for your support and I’ll let you get back to the content. – Really, really, really good question and so I think we have crossed that chasm. I think the sloppiness

Is from the price differentials, okay? So if I own the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and it’s finally traded back to par and I bought it at a loss, maybe I bought those coins at 50, 60,000, my proclivity is gonna be to sell those coins

And if I want to stay in Bitcoin to buy the Bitcoin ETF after I’ve sold that and so you’re seeing a tremendous amount of sloppiness. I think there was another $400 million worth of Bitcoin on chain this morning moved from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an exchange to liquidate that

And I think they’re gonna have heavy selling. Now you’d say to yourself “Well, why did they go from 2% to 1 and 1/2? Everyone’s else is at 20 basis points.” I think they need the fees and I think they’re making the bet

That there’s a lot of people that have low cost tax lots, low cost tax basis and are not gonna necessarily sell to save 120 basis points, which is the net differential between the fees of the ETF and Grayscale. – Hmm. Do you feel that,

And I want to make sure I phrase this question correctly, that it’s almost like the crypto startups, the kids, so to speak, are being put to bed and the adults, the Wall Street firms are here? Maybe with the exception of Coinbase ’cause Coinbase has gone public,

It’s shown it’s a reputable business and company. They partner with BlackRock but Binance, it looks like they’re gonna be under scrutiny. They got the biggest fine I think it is in the settlement and you have all these other firms like Grayscale seeming like they’re losing market share now. – Really good question.

So I obviously think Coinbase is gonna be fine. I think that they are such a big part of the crypto ecosystem and all of these ETFs are transacting with Coinbase. Coinbase has an interesting lawsuit going on right now vis-a-vis the SEC. It sounds like the judge is very well-prepared,

Asking super smart questions related to that lawsuit. It could come to pass, Tony, where the SEC loses another case. Could you imagine that? I mean, they would’ve lost the Ripple case. They would’ve lost the Grayscale case. They’d lose the Coinbase case. I think at that point, it’s a little embarrassing for them

In terms of the way they’re administrating the laws. I think it’s prima facie, they’re acting as politicians and they’re being politically influenced more than they are adhering to or following the law. But when you talk about grownups in the room, Coinbase will have its market share. JP Morgan, despite the sentiments shared

By Jamie Dimon, will have its market share. Goldman has gotten into the mix and yes, I think that the asset class is growing up. I don’t think some of the larger baby companies, to use your analogy, are going to get hurt that badly because I just think it’s gonna be

Overall growth in the ecosystem. But it’s not gonna surprise me if we’re sitting here a year from now and the biggest brokerage firms have Bitcoin available as an investment, the wirehouses have approved it for their core portfolios. You could have somebody like BlackRock in their total return portfolio, it’s a $2 trillion portfolio.

They say “Okay, we want a 1% exposure.” That’s $200 billion in Bitcoin. Just think of the magnitude of that, right? – Maybe their portfolio arrangement will eventually be 60-30-10, 10 going to Bitcoin? – Maybe, we don’t know. Who knows? – Yeah. – I just think it’s amazing.

I think you can’t see the future but if the future is exponential like you and I both believe, then it’s very bright. The question is what’s gonna happen near term? I don’t know the answer to that. But are we sitting here at an all-time high between now and the end of the year?

We have 11 and a 1/2 months to go and we have a big halving cycle taking place in April. Could Bitcoin get through the $69,000 level by the end of the year? I believe it will. – Yeah. – Selling will have abated from Grayscale and the machines

Of Wall Street will be selling this idea to their clients. – Yeah, and I’ve been talking to quite a few of the issuers, I spoke to Cathie at Ark Invest and the guys at Bitwise and they have their marketing plans to educate RIAs and wealth managers. It’s coming, man.

Even my own personal financial advisor, I’ve been talking to him about it for awhile and he’s like “Yeah, we can’t touch it, blah, blah blah.” Now that the ETFs are live, it’s a different story. Everybody’s curious. – Yeah. Think about all the road that we have ahead of us, right?

I mean, the road to get here, all of these early adapters are being rewarded because it’s now going mainstream. But you’re just getting started on the mainstream road. To put it into the context, there’s only 4 and 1/2% adoption globally. That’s roughly where we were

In the middle of 1998 for the internet and Web1. So just imagine where we’ll be in 10 or 15 years. – Yeah, absolutely. – You’ll still be a nice young pup. I’ll be fighting to keep my hairline. That’s what I’ll be doing, – Tell us about SkyBridge’s strategy.

I know obviously you guys have been invested in crypto and Bitcoin, I think Ether as well. Are you adding new tokens? Are there any new things that you’re looking at for 2024? – Yeah, well I’m always very open about my portfolio. We own Casper Labs.

I own a small gaming token called Vulcan Forged, the symbol’s PYR. We own Algorand, which we think still has great technology and just perhaps may have misfired as a layer one in terms of scaling its TVL but I think their relaunch is gonna go incredibly well. We own Solana

And we own Bitcoin and we’ve been buying Avalanche. So to me, those are high quality, great core assets long term. Some are more speculative, some are stable like Bitcoin and so even though Bitcoin has an 80 to 100 vol at times, I still see that as the granddaddy and more stable

And so for me, for SkyBridge, our goal, educate our people, expand our market share. We have some private equity securities that we’re offering through, we have this thing called the SkyBridge Unicorn Recovery Fund. We’ve got investments in things like Klarna and Liquid Death, which we think are gonna be great free IPO investments.

We have our Coin Fund, which was up 160% last year. That’s in a diversified group of tokens similar to the ones that I just mentioned and then we have our hedge fund, which had its best year in SkyBridge’s history last year. Our offshore fund up 36, our onshore fund up 25.

It’s truly been a great year for us and I see this year as being equally good. Now who the hell knows? I’ve been humbled by life and markets and maybe I’ll get it wrong but if Bitcoin goes to 70,000 this year, there’ll be happy camper clients at SkyBridge.

Both the employees and the customers here at SkyBridge will be very happy. – Now speaking of markets outlook and what may happen, we see the Fed looks like they are going to cut this year. I don’t know, there’s a lot of speculation on maybe a cut in March, May or whatever it is.

– Yeah. – And look, eventually the money printer is gonna have to be turned on to pay for all the different things that are going on. They’ve raised the debt ceiling and all these different things. What is your outlook for the Fed and how they will take action?

Because that has affected markets of course. – Well, it’s an election year and so I’ll say a couple of things. The Stock Trader Almanac, 125 years of election year observation, 85% of the time, the market goes up in an election year. I wouldn’t bet against that trend. Secondarily, (coughs) sorry, excuse me,

The Fed has said that they’re more or less done raising rates and it being an election year and I know they try to be apolitical, they’re sort of political, they’ll probably start cutting rates. The question is how much will they cut and win? And I think when they say “higher longer,”

I just think it’s going to be lower longer and what do I mean by that? Probably don’t cut rates until the second half of the year and then they cut ’em pretty quickly. But I think that they’ll probably leave people with an impression that they’re not cutting ’em in the first half

And then by June and July, they’ll start cutting ’em. – Now Anthony, history has shown us anytime the Fed pivots and they start cutting, there is a pullback on markets. So do you think it’s gonna be maybe a short term pullback? It’s gonna be sharp but like you said, it’s an election year.

Maybe they start the money printer again and things are back to normal in a month or two. – Yeah. Well yes, and the market’s gone up a lot. I’m talking about the stock market. So if the Fed cuts rates and the market doesn’t move a lot,

It won’t surprise me because it’s been anticipatory. The same way Bitcoin went up a lot into the ETF news, once it got announced, it traded a little bit sloppily. But I do believe that interest rates are the physical gravity of financial assets. You lower rates,

You’re going to increase the value of those assets. It’s just the way it works. So lower rates will mean a higher Bitcoin, lower rates will mean a higher Ethereum and so it’ll be generally a good thing. Will it happen instantaneously? No, but will it happen? Sure.

Remember, these things are what Buffet once said, the markets are a voting machine or a popularity contest in the short term but they’re a weighing machine over long periods of time where they weigh the fundamentals of something and so you could be sitting here with lower interest rates

And Bitcoin’s at up over 100,000, not impossible. – Yeah, I personally think that’s what’s gonna happen. But I hope I’m right, that’d be really nice. (laughs) Question for you for the election that’s coming up. I’ve seen your tweets and I know you talked about you don’t think Trump is gonna win.

Do you think Biden gets reelected? And I’m hoping, I’m praying that we get some fresh blood, younger, like a Vivek or (scoff), I don’t know. Sometimes I get frustrated with (laughs) the candidates that we have. – Yeah and look, Vivek is not gonna be President. He’s obviously dropped out of the race

And RFK’s not gonna be President. He’s in a third party, he’s just not gonna get enough of the vote. The question is Trump gonna be President again? And so I don’t see it because the country’s gotten browner and Blacker, the mosaic of the country, this beautiful,

Colorful mosaic of America has changed once again. It’s a different country than the 2016 version of this country and the second thing which I think is important is how has he expanded his base? He’s become intolerable to a very large group of people and the Nikki Haley voter, when questioned about the election,

They say “Oh no, I could never vote for Trump.” 43% of ’em said not gonna support him in the general election. 70% of the New Hampshire people do not support, I voted for Nick Haley, he’s not getting my vote and so you need that crossover vote after a primary.

You need a healing process in a party and you need the crossover vote. Reagan got it from Bush, Hillary Clinton, she did not get it from Bernie Sanders. Barack Obama did get it from Hillary Clinton. So we’re here now, have to see what happens but, you know?

– Do you think Biden gets reelected? – I do, yes, I think Biden gets reelected and it’s sort of “Weekend at Biden’s.” He’s got one foot on a banana peel, the other foot in the casket. I mean, what am I gonna do? But I would choose him over Trump

’cause he’s not a threat to the institutions of the democracy, not a threat to the rule of law and we all benefit from the predictability of our legal system and we benefit from the fact that nobody at the top has that much power.

When Trump says he wants to seize power, be a dictator and this sort of stuff, let’s take him seriously. We don’t need people like that in our government. – Now Anthony, Trump did, we talked about it earlier, make some statements about CBDCs. I want to get your thoughts in general because

There seems to be a growing need for this in the United States or a stablecoin version, maybe that’s more decentralized because other countries are building their CBDCs and if we want to maintain the US dollar as the World Reserve Currency, we may need to have this. But what are your thoughts on that?

– Well see, I actually think that you can have a stablecoin that doesn’t come with all the bells and whistles of privacy invasion and why not just go with the stablecoin? Moreover, Jeremy Allaire just put out a white paper describing the benefits of having a stablecoin versus a central bank digital currency.

It’s less threatening to the world to have a stablecoin and in some ways, it may maintain or improve the dollar’s supremacy. So I’m not buying that we need to have a central bank digital currency. By the way, we’ll survive if we get one but I don’t think we will get one.

There’s still libertarian elements in the country and I can just tell you that they were talking about dollarization over the blockchain in 2017 when I was in the White House. Now granted, I was only there for a short period of time but the Fed in July of 2017 produced a white paper

Talking about putting the dollar up on the blockchain. Nothing happened, it’s seven years later. So we’ll see but I think the first move is gonna probably be to use Jeremy Allaire at Circle and the USDC. – Yeah, and that makes sense ’cause it’s on different blockchains, there’s interoperability.

Like you said, it’s more decentralized. People will have less concerns. – And could be interoperable with those governments. – True. – In some ways, that would be less threatening to those governments. – Final question here, you have Jeremy Allaire and Circle and they have a USDC,

You have Tether in the open market globally, the largest stablecoin and you have companies here in the United States that are launching stable coins like PayPal. What do you think happens? It seems like a lot of stablecoins are gonna be popping up here and there. I know regulations are needed

But what do you think about that? – Yeah, I mean if they’re regulated and there’s reserves behind them, just like we have a lot of banks, I don’t see how we wouldn’t end up with a lot of stablecoins. Now having said that, will the stablecoins make themselves interoperable with each other?

And I’m hoping that’s the case. I’m hoping that we get legislation that creates that type of clarity. So if you have a stablecoin backed in US dollar or an Algorand and you need to flip it into an Ethereum-based stablecoin, I hope we are able to make that happen for people

Without a lot of costs or a lot of fanfare. So I think it happens and I think the future’s bright and if you’re at 4% adoption or 4 and 1/2% adoption right now, Tony, imagine what the world looks like at 9% adoption. – Exciting times. Anthony, thank you for joining me.

– Good to be here, man. I like your rig, I like your backup back there. – Thanks man, I’ve been adding to it. – All right, good luck. – Take care, Anthony. – Bye.