Raoul Pal Gambling MASSIVE On Ethereum In 2024

Raoul Pal Gambling MASSIVE On Ethereum In 2024

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#952 – Ask Me Anything: Happy Hour with Raoul Pal

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Usually when IPOs happen in in strong markets like this um it reminds me a lot of the uh late ’90s and uh and I was trading a lot there and I was at Goldman as well then and what you found is after the IPO it would launch and it would be

Shoppy as hell for a while sometimes it would sell off quite sharply Facebook sold off really sharply as people took profits repositioned now don’t forget a lot of people have front run this ETF so they were going to want to unwind and many of those are going to switch to eth

That I’ve talked about before they think rightly so that eth is the most likely candidate for the next ETF and if Bitcoin went up 100% because of this ETF eth will go up 300% because it’s Les less liquid put the same amount of money in following this week’s historic

Approval and listing of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs excitement has quickly spread to the ethereum community suggesting the possibility of an imminent spot ethereum ETF however for those wary of excessive celebration within a single week Securities and Exchange Comm commission chair Gary Gensler has tempered expectations in a recent CNBC interview

Gensler provided minimal encouragement when questioned about the likelihood of SEC approval for a spot ethereum ETF in the near future guinsler has consistently asserted over the years that he views Bitcoin as the only cryptocurrency unequivocally classified as a commodity placing it outside the sec’s regulatory purview despite the absence of official pronouncements

Regarding ethereum security status the SEC has previously indicated in legal filings its jurisdiction over all ethereum transactions in a video review of the just concluded ETF approval and its ensuing events Ro pal discusses the potential of an ethereum ETF He suggests that an ethereum ETF could outperform a

Bitcoin ETF in the immediate aftermath of this historic week I’ve explained it before how I think of this is in two terms one is anybody who was an invested in Bitcoin in 20112 was like a series a investor 2013 cycle maybe series B you know 2015 16

Series C the last Cycle Series D we’ve just ipoed it and usually when IPOs happen in in strong markets like this um it reminds me a lot of the uh late 90s uh and I was trading a lot then I was at Goldman as well then and what you found

Is after the IPO it would launch and it would be choppy as hell for a while sometimes would sell off quite sharply Facebook sold off really sharply as people took profits positioned now don’t forget a lot of people have front run this ETF so they were going to want to

Unwind and many of those are going to switch to eth that I’ve talked about before they think rightly so that eth is the most likely candidate for the next ETF and if Bitcoin went up 100% because of this ETF eth will go up 300% because it’s Les less liquid put the same amount

Of money in there’s a lot of people unwinding the gbtc Arbitrage closing that position selling out moving into a different ETF there’s a a lot of shenanigans going on and you can see that with the net flows you know there was four and a half billion or whatever

Of total flows net flows are much smaller 700 million or so it’s still the biggest ever ETF launches in history as the series but it’s it’s all to play for and I want you to understand how this works is okay all of the pre-orders have now been filled that was all of these

ETF providers going to all of their clients begging them you need to do this you need to do this you need to do this everyone’s done that sure there’ll be some follow on next week a lot of the gbtc guys are unwinding and that will go

You know some we’ll wait a few days see if the market it’s stronger whatever so that goes on for a while you’ve then taken forward or brought forward a lot of demand you know by the end of it maybe it’s a billion maybe it’s two billion of demand you’ll have brought forward so

Then who’s the buyer you’ve got the people who Frank R this who want to sell so you’re going to see volatility and I’ve always reminded you guys in the do not it up Mantra part of that is expect 30 35% pullbacks could be less but just expect them and that often

Happens when you get to this kind of 61.8% Fibonacci level in the first leg of the bull run it often corrects sharply people get washed out Leverage is cleared out and then the real run starts and the real run is the run to all-time highs and beyond that usually

Starts around the harving so I’m guessing there’s maybe a month or two of chop uh and chop in crypto Market is like down 30% it’s just sideways chop so just be careful out there I could be wrong could keep um sailing higher but you know it just feels like

It’s trading a bit heavy and even if it does as spurt higher I don’t think it makes much progress yet should the SEC categorize ethereum as a security it would likely adopt an even more adversarial stance towards a spot ethereum ETF compared to its historical resistance to a Bitcoin ETF which it had

Steadfastly rejected for an extended period the sec’s about face on the Bitcoin ETF came after being compelled to do so by a federal appeals court highlighting the potential for a similar Court decision to pressure the SEC into approving a spot ethereum ETF SEC chair Gensler acknowledged this shift in circumstances during his recent

Statement on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF recognizing that legal judgments have altered the landscape for crypto ETFs in October a federal court mandated the SEC to reassess Grace scale’s Bitcoin ETF application contending that the SEC couldn’t arbitrarily deny a spot Bitcoin ETF after greenlighting a Bitcoin Futures ETF application notably

The SEC had already granted approval for an ethereum Futures ETF in the same month potentially setting the stage for a parallel legal scenario but really this is a trade deal between F world and cryptand and it’s a trade deal because the capital that’s flowing into to crypto land is not permanent residency

These are not migrants if you remember population growth uh GDP growth is population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth this is not population growth coming into crypto land that has to be new wallets and actual self- custody or on crypto exchanges and all of that stuff this is

A trade deal to allow trafi land Raa in Cincinnati to get his clients across into this new world that has higher rates of return the best example of this I can give you is China entering the WTO um that was a classic example of opening up a market that had much higher

Rates of return and absorbed huge amounts of capital over time and I think crypto will absorb huge amounts of capital over time but remember these people are tourists these are this is not even foreign direct investment FDI that would be VC money what this is is speculative hot pop money flows into

This new economy and one day it’ll wash out again too so be careful of that while we want to encourage them while it’s going to help our ecosystem grow while it’s going to create more Capital more opportunities it’ll move your bag as well this is not permanent residency

In our world and so yes we welcome them with open arms but remember what we really want is a new Financial system being built now interestingly you saw um Larry thinkink talking today on CNBC I think it was um not that I watch CNBC um

But um there was a cliff um and he was talking about well this is just the start because what we actually want to do is tokenize the entire financial industry and he’s dead right firms like Black Rock Franken Templeton Fidelity these are currently you think of these

As fat World companies that have set up offices in cryptand much like many businesses like apple set up in China but what Larry’s talking about is the migration the eventual migration of the financial system into cryptand which is which was my core thesis when I first found Bitcoin 2012 and has remained my

Thesis of where this is all going amongst many of the other opportunities so it’s really interesting when you think of it in economic terms these are economies this is a digital economy of cryptand that has other states within it Bitcoin ethereum salano whatever it may be so that becomes very

Interesting and you can think of you know even within that you’ve got you know interoperable systems stuff like whether it’s padot or Quant or a whole bunch of these things allow or chain link interoperability that’s the travel the border crossing from going from one of these nation states to another we’ve

Got immigration which is Us opening wallets we’ve got FDI which is VC we’ve got trade deals which is hot money flows chasing opportunities within the country which is the ETF um we have a monetary system we have interest rate systems which is the yields uh we have a

Collateral system you can call that Bitcoin you could even call eth collateral within the system because it’s used within borrowing and lending we’ve got asset markets which is like nfts so and there’s a lot more um I’ve written extensively about this in global macro investor and also in real Vision

Pro macro I’ve talked about this depth too this is a new digital economy and it’s an emerging market and it’s the fastest growing market we’ve ever seen Black Rock SE Larry fin expressed support for the concept of an ethereum exchange traded fund one day after the much anticipated launch of the Bitcoin

ETF in an interview with CNBC on Friday think noted I see value in having an ethereum ETF these are just stepping stones towards tokenization and I do believe this is where we’re going to be going following the sec’s approval Black Rock I shares Bitcoin trust debute in the US contributing approximately $1

Billion to the total $4.6 billion trading volume collectively seen by the Bitcoin ETFs there is speculation that black rock a major asset management firm may be considering a similar product for ethereum’s Native token as part of its ongoing journey toward tokenization think believes that tokenization can effectively address issues related to

Money laundering and Corruption additionally think clarified his perspective on cryptocurrency viewing it not as a currency but as an asset class he specifically cited Bitcoin as an asset class offering protection against geopolitical risks highlighting its finite Supply compared to Gold despite the initial excitement over the approval of Bitcoin ETFs bitcoin’s price

Experienced a substantial drop falling below $42,000 on Friday marking a nearly 10% decline think remains optimistic about the broader vision for the space emphasizing that more individuals are recognizing it the price decline occurred a day after the debut of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds representing a significant milestone for

The industry predictions are open regarding whether Bitcoin will reach $32,000 or if the rally will resume inviting discussions in the comment section for more daily dose crypto news check out these two awesome videos on your screen click now and we will see you on the next video