There’s plenty of oil as long as Biden doesn’t bomb Iran: Bob Yawger

Robert Yawger, energy futures strategist at Mizuho Americas, says the crude market looks well supplied but a direct U.S. attack on Iran, in retaliation for the death of three US soldiers in Jordan, would be likely to push prices well above US$80.

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INCREDIBLE STAFF. OIL IS HEADED FOR ITS FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE SEPTEMBER. >> A BIG REASON FOR THAT. THESE TANKER DIVERSIONS AWAY FROM THE RED SEA RISING FARES ABOUT A WIDER WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. WE’RE JOINED BY BOB YAWGER ENERGY FUTURE

STRATEGIST AT MIZUHO AMERICAS. BOB, IT’S GREAT TO SEE YOU. PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS SAID HE’S DECIDED TO DO. WE DON’T KNOW WHAT IT IS YET. BUT YOU SAID THIS WEEK THAT IF HE DOES STRIKE UP TARGETS WITH IN IRAN, WE COULD SEE OIL WERE

LIKE YOU SEE OIL GO ABOVE $80. US. >> YES, I BELIEVE THAT’S PROBABLY THE CASE WAY ABOVE $80 FOR THAT MATTER. HOWEVER, I DON’T THINK THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, WE HAVE PUT IN THE FIRST BIG MONTHS SINCE

A SEPTEMBER HERE WE HAVE A COUPLE FACTORS AT IN THE MARKET. AND IN MY OPINION, ANDREA, TO SUSTAIN THESE NUMBERS WERE GOING TO BE A SOMETHING ALONG THOSE IS GETTING A LITTLE WOBBLY AGAINST THESE HIGHS HERE. I LIKE AT LEAST YESTERDAY’S

HIGHS WE’RE GOING TO HAVE THIS GOING TO GET YOUR POLITICAL MISSTEP BY SOMEBODY TO SUSTAIN LEVEL IS ABOUT $79 OF IT. YOU THINK THERE ARE SUFFICIENT DOUBTS ABOUT ED DEMAND GLOBALLY TO PUSH OIL DOWN, WELL, LET’S HOPE WE GET SOME

KIND RESOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. >> WELL, THAT WOULD BE HUGE IF THERE’S A RESOLUTION MIDDLE EAST. I THINK THAT THAT THE PRICE LIES PRETTY GOOD OPEC TO TRYING TO KEEP BARRELS OFF THE MARKET, BUT THE U.S. PREDICT IT PRODUCER MOVING BATTLES FOR

SIZE. WE HAD 3 ISN’T JUST, I’M NOT EVEN 2 WEEKS AGO. AND IT TOOK BARRELS OFF THE MARKET LAST WEEK. THAT’S WHERE THE REASONS WE GOT TO $79 THIS WEEK WAS A U.S. PRODUCTION SLID OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH

BECAUSE IT WAS COLD IN THE PRODUCTION IS OUT 700,000 OF THOSE BALLOTS JUST CAME BACK ACCORDING TO THIS WEEK’S EIA STORAGE REPORT THAT JUST CAME OUT 10 30 MARK IT TOOK WAS TRADED LOWER, SHARPLY LOWER THERE FOR A COUPLE OF MINUTES.

AS A RESULT OF THAT ALSO, ANDREW EXPORTS WERE DOWN AND OUT OF BOUNDS. GOLDEN REFINERY WERE DOWN BIG. THAT IMPLIES THAT 3 FIRE YOU LOSE A THAT REFINERS ARE NOT BRADY REFINERY UTILIZATION RATE BACK QUICKLY AND MAKE A LOT OF

PRODUCT. THEY DON’T NEED IT. IT’S THE AND THE WINTER. WE HAVE A LOT OF HEATING OIL AVAILABLE. WE DON’T REALLY NEED TO MAKE MORE. AND HE’S NOT GASLINK SERIOUS SEASON YET. SO WE DON’T REALLY NEED TO MAKE A LOT OF GAS MAY YET.

WE ACTUALLY WERE TALKING ABOUT MARATHON PETROLEUM YESTERDAY. I THINK THAT WHAT THE TICKER SYMBOL IS FOR THAT COMPANY JUST SPEWING OUT OF CASH. >> ACTUALLY, OUR GUEST ANALYST WHO LOVES THE STOCK SAID THE REFINING SECTOR AND IN THE STATES HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY

WELL LATELY. >> YES, THAT’S AND FOR MARITIME. AND TODAY, BASICALLY PHILLIPS 66 THAT THE SAME DAY, THEY’RE ALL THEY’RE BOTH TRADING AT ALL-TIME HIGHS. AND SO YES, THE RE FIRES THERE FROM FIRE SECTOR IS DOING PRETTY GOOD. I MEAN WHEN YOU

TAKE A CRUDE OIL AND YOU CRACK YOU BOIL IT, EFFECTIVELY CRACKED IT. IT TURNS IT TURNS INTO GASOLINE, A 3RD OF THE TURNS AND HEATING OIL THAT PRICE HERE ON THAT GASOLINE COMING OUT. FINALLY IT’S NOWHERE IS ALL-TIME RECORDS, WHICH BUT STOCKS ARE. SO

THAT’S A BIT OF A DISCONNECT. THERE. WHAT THEY’RE DOING PRETTY THE REFINERIES ARE PRETTY GOOD AS A RESULT, WE’RE NOT DOING ANYTHING. WE WEREN’T BEARS CLOSE THOSE. WELL, AS WE WERE, COULD CALL LAST YEAR WITH THOSE GUYS ARE REALLY PRINTING MONEY, BUT IT’S IT,

THEY’VE DAVE IMPLEMENT IT, JUST HOW HERE WE ARE. ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR PRESIDENT REFINERS, BUT WE’RE GOING ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT TO THE WALL STREET JOURNAL SAYS THAT WHEN AND IF WE GET OUR TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE EXPANSION IN CANADA GOING, IT’S GOING TO

MEAN LESS CHEAP OIL FOR THE U.S. MIDWEST. WHO DO YOU THINK IT WILL MEAN THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE? >> I THINK IT’LL MAKE A DIFFERENCE I THINK IT’S A GAME CHANGER, BUT A LOT AS BROWN START GOING TO CIVIC. A NEW

STAR TREK SPORTY THE SENATE. ABOUT AS WELCOME TO UNITED STATES. AND THAT WHAT WILL HAPPEN LESS 1000 GOOD PUSHING CURSING AS IT 9 NEXT DELIVERY SITE AND THOSE