Rafi Farber’s Warn! Why I Changed My Entire Prediction on Gold and Silver Price

Rafi Farber’s Warn! Why I Changed My Entire Prediction on Gold and Silver Price

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QT will be over the next round of inflation will be supercharged but in the meantime we have something very dangerous going on in Silver versus gold open interest that I have never seen before rafy Farber offers a captivating insight into the financial landscape we explore the pressing question is another

Banking crisis just around the corner rafy Farber an economic analyst who has been acclaimed for his insightful insights explains the signs impacts and potential out comes of an imminent financial crisis take part in this enlightening trip through the intricate web of global finance and there’s some very cool stuff going on with silver

Open interest versus gold open interest this week we are looked to be on the CLP of another Regional banking crisis because we have $1.5 trillion do of commercial mortgages coming due this year and next and I don’t think the regional banking system is going to

Survive and the FED is going to have to bail them out again we have the second largest physical withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange ever the last time it was this high it was in late 2015 at the end of a gold bare market and prices now are about twice as high

As they were back then and still we have record withdrawals New York Community Bank Corp looks to be in the middle of a bank run other banks will follow there will be another bailout the FED is going to have to buy all the commercial mortgages or a lot of them at least and

Expand its balance sheet once again QT will be over the next round of inflation will be supercharged but in the meantime we have something very dangerous going on in Silver versus gold open interest that I have never seen before getting into some more highlights from its guidance for

2024 and its review of 2023 we did see something often overlooked in miners but we have record lead production of 40 million pound and 18% increase over 2022 and record zinc production of 55 million pound and 19% increase over 2022 that just means there there’s higher mining activity which means these are higher

Byproducts of mining activity and for 2024 we have gold production guidance between 343 and 385,000 ounces which is a projected increase of between 5 and 18% respectively it’s becoming more of a gold Minor by the year and I have something interesting to show you here you think lead and zinc are not

Significant or totally insignificant with regards to gold and silver miners that is not true because if you look at the price of lead compared to the price of gold and it’s very similar for silver gold is of course in the Gold Line here and lead is in the leish kind of color

The gray color but we see that the movement is very similar between gold and Lead at least qualitatively uh the lead goes way up when silver go when when gold goes way up and it’s very similar with silver and it’s the same thing with zinc you see here gold in the

Gold and zinc in the gray uh very very similar chart here as gold and silver go up so do zinc and Lead it’s all all good for the miners that dig them out and as the Preppers like to say you need Gold Silver and Lead so not bad here now

Let’s move on with this week’s silver report what do we got here this is from gold charts are us the second largest physical gold withdrawal ever on record the record was in July 2015 and that was when gold was at $1100 an ounce and all of a sudden we

Have this humongous spike in Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai uh physical gold exchange and uh if you look at this box this was back when gold was in a bare Market from late 2012 until the beginning of 2016 these were when the record withdrawals were going and that made sense because you know

Gold was at a very low price relatively so people were in China were taking advantage of that with higher gold withdrawals from The Exchange and all of a sudden we have this crazy Spike here which is the second highest withdrawal ever 271 tons for the month what is

Causing this don’t know exactly but some something is going on in China in the gold market meanwhile if we move to the lbma to see what the vaults are like over there gold and silver both went slightly down and gold sorry silver is hanging around alltime lows at the lbma

Vault these are the vaults that store for all the ETFs for most of the ETFs Chris sent me this tweet by by Xiao Jun it’s good information but I think by and I like him and I do follow him and I think he’s got good info I think he

Still doesn’t get though about silver being money most people don’t it’s hard to see silver as one of these days when it’s been demonetized since 1873 but that’s only an illusion it will remonetized because there’s no other way to use to do retail trade you can’t do

It with gold it’s too valuable and if you have no gold substitute or gold derivative then you’ve got to use silver but anyway by xia Jun says the following China is preparing for the Post silver era by all financial means to import huge amounts of silver to meet industrial demand while increasing

Reserves the point here that I want to make is that by is focusing on Industrial demand for silver but the thing is uh what will really cause silver to spike to all-time highs and Beyond is not necessarily industrial demand for it it’s the return of monetary demand because the monetary

Demand will be simultaneous by everyone in the world as the dollar collapses there will be no gold derivative to use and the public all across the world will have to go back to Silver so you have this explosion of monetary demand because of the lack of the ability of

The dollar to actually be used in trade anymore and this is going to spike silver to whatever the dollar amount is going to be but it’s going to be money directly for a while until we are able to establish a new derivative system for it which eventually will happen uh so

The point is here once the dollar does collapse uh industrial demand for silver is not going to be very relevant because industry is going to really fall and people are going to need silver to basically survive to have what remains of a division of labor because without

Money you don’t have that so what we’re really talking about here is the return of monetary demand for silver which has very little to do with industrial demand now still importing silver into China uh it for industrial demand when that industrial demand is not there that will

Still be very useful for monetary demand when it does return so this is relevant and it does mean that China is stocking silver at least for industrial demand but I don’t even think that China understands that so is going to be money also now I wanted to get into this open

Interest issue which is very interesting I’ve never seen anything like this before uh in Gold versus silver open interest open interest of course is the number of contracts in the Futures Market that are open on the comx for each metal uh so we’re seeing here since uh it looks like late late December

2023 right open interest has climbed is rocketed in Silver from about 127 128,000 contracts to just under 150,000 this number is a little bit uh is on a one- day lag I think it’s 149,90 and I’m talking to you on Thursday February 8th so we’re just under 150,000 contracts and we haven’t

Been at this number of contracts in silver open uh going back to June 2023 and very only very rarely in the last two years last two years have we seen open interest going this high and when it does go this High the with the price being low and the open Interest being so

High the open actually where this black line is now uh it looks like we could have a Smash in silver over the next few weeks and that would precede a banking crisis because usually on banking crisis silver does collapse very briefly until the FED moves and it’s not going to take

Them long to do it but I’m saying prepare for uh an imminent Smash in silver uh because we’re in a very precarious situation here we have a price low but an open interest High over the past two years so just be careful I don’t know exactly what’s going to

Happen and it might not be a smash but be emotionally prepared in case there is once so now if we move to the next chart here I show you you how open interest highs in the bottom here correspond with price highs generally speaking not every time and there is an exception over here

Which I highlighted in the black so we have uh over here in in 2022 early March looks like 2022 we had a high in silver uh and a high in open interest so if you bought at this high and open interest it would not have been a good spot here too

High and open interest high in price uh here’s another one a high and open interest and a highend price this is the only exception here where we had um a collapse in price here followed by a little bit of a highend price so if we see something like this it would be a

Very minor pullback but this is the only spot where you would have been relatively safe buying at this open interest High it would have been in this area and you would have gone through a little bit of a selloff and then uh you would been basically even even to this

Day basically even maybe a little bit down um but if you bought here again you would have you would have lost out if you bought here again at this open interest High uh in December 2023 uh that wouldn’t have been a good trading position this all doesn’t have to do

With uh stacking physical silver of course this is all for trading people if we look here at the open interest we’re at the end of we’re at 2024 here and this is uh this is February 8th 2024 and we see our open interest is at 49,1 121 just below 420,000 this has not

Happened uh going back to 2019 sorry late 2018 uh but if we look at this open interest in in Gold the amount of contracts open to gold is at a low which means there’s a lot of fuel for gold to move High so then why is silver skyrocketing in open interest when gold

Is falling I’ve never seen this before something is going on in the markets that I don’t understand uh if you look here at open interest in Gold uh I show you here that if you buy gold at low open interest then you usually buy at a

Low in price or at least a safe range in price here so here was a low in gold an early 2023 here was a low and open interest here was a low here was a low and open interest and if you bought around here you would have gener been up

And you’ve still been up to this day uh here if we look at early 2019 there was a low and open interest around where we are now at 42,000 and this was a very good place to buy and so was this uh so we’re having mixed signals here it looks

Like a safe place to buy gold The Only Exception here was during this low and open interest around our levels now it was not a particularly gratifying uh area to buy gold in but it would have been safe anyway because we’re still higher than that now uh so we’re having

Mix signals here and I don’t really know what to say except we’ll go to the next chart and I’ll show you how this is never really happened before um I want to show you a zoomed in chart but it applies across the years um if you see

Here these um these boxes these black boxes show lows and this is gold open interest on the top here versus silver open interest in the bottom here you can see they generally go in parallel though the changes in silver are more Extreme as they always are um whether you’re

Talking about price or open interest it’s a much thinner market so we have here a low and open interest in Gold corresponds to the low and open interest in silver low and gold low and silver low and gold low and same here with all these boxes The Only Exception is this

One we have a low in Gold open interest here and a high in silver here what is going on I don’t know just be careful um I think it has something to do with the banking situation going on here because if we have a banking crisis that unfolds

Over the next few weeks it is likely that silver would be smashed gold might go down slightly also and then the FED will print and then everything will slingshot the other way we’ve we’ve been through this before we know what it’s like it’s always scary when it happens

But it is necessary for the next round to be started rafy farber’s insightful interview with us concludes with the hope that you gained valuable insights into the possibility of another banking crisis we look forward to more engaging content and Analysis we must stay informed to navigate the complexities of

Our financial world so please like this video share it and subscribe to our Channel thank you for joining us and until next time stay [Applause] Vigilant