Rafi Farber’s Warn! Why I Changed My Entire Prediction on Gold and Silver Price

Rafi Farber’s Warn! Why I Changed My Entire Prediction on Gold and Silver Price

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Uh look look at H look at housing prices look how much it cost to rise to raise a family I’m not even going to try to reproduce I’m not going to try to raise a family I’m not even going to try to build to to build or buy a house I’m

Just going to spend uh on you know a lamb skin tote bag and make myself feel better um but that that’s that’s one stage then the next stage is I got to get rid of this money immediately and buy whatever I can find on the shelves I

Don’t care what it is that’s that’s hyperinflation but I wanted I wanted to bring this to the the point of um back to Silver again because get a sense of economic Enlightenment with rafy Farber The Trusted guide to understanding banking contagion investor Panic Doom spending and sound money prepare to

Challenge conventional wisdom and gain insight into the forces shaping our financial landscape with farber’s insightful analyses keep watching and keep supporting us well quantitatively uh the bank term funding program um just in very simple terms is Banks can give the FED all their treasuries and then get the face value

Of it in a loan for a year for uh the reserves uh and those reserves have to be paid back so numerically what it means is the the bank term funding program started on March 11th ends on March 11th but most of the loans the big

Chunk of the loans were made by April 5th and those have to be paid back and I think I think it’s something between 70 and 80 billion do um were ma of loans uh were made by April 5th so if the program is not renewed we’re going to have to

See the equivalent of about $80 billion in quantitative tightening uh QT when these loans are paid back because when when a bank let’s say pays back the loan to the fed and then they get their they get their underwater treasuries back because it was a swap then all the money

All the dollars that they pay to the FED to pay back that loan they those dollars go out of existence right they’re not spent by the FED back into the system that would be QE again so quantitatively we’re going to see something between 80 and hundred billion dollar of

Quantitative tightening by April 5th and if there are no more reverse repos in the system and they’re draining fast now I think they’re down the last time I checked was a few minutes ago I think it’s 500 billion now so we’re down to our last half

Trillion um there’s going to be a crunch probably in the repo Market probably in the overnight lending market like something like we saw in September 2019 but not exactly that I don’t know exactly what it’s going to be it could be more Banks failing just like we saw with um New York

Community New York Community Bank Corp I think it’s called Uh that was yesterday I think they they didn’t collapse completely but they had this big loss $150 million loss from an office loan that went bad a single office loan um and a co-op loan there’s so many banks

That have a lot of office loans uh commercial real estate loans that if one of them goes bad all of the sudden uh what they thought was going to be like let’s say $300 million profit for the quarter or for the for the quarter ends

Up to be like a $300 million loss and then investors are don’t know what to do and they sell the bank and then you start a contagion this is definitely going to cause a contagion at some point and uh the cancellation or the ending of the bank term funding program is going

To speed it up I wouldn’t exactly call it Reckless spending um it’s more of giving up it’s it’s it’s sort of like um what’s that word not like nihilistic spending not nihilistic in terms of these people just want to die but they just they don’t care about the dollar anymore it’s like

The analogy that I use a lot is the apple tree Once the far if if the if the guy’s losing apples in his backyard where he doesn’t notice because his his neighbor is clandestinely taking them then he won’t do much about it and he’ll keep tending the tree and growing the

Apples but if he realizes that the that his neighbor’s just taking all his apples he’ll cut down the tree because why why should he feed his neighbor he’ll cut down the tree take what he can and and that’s it um and that’s that’s what happens in hyperin that is hyperinflation hyperinflation is the

Change in Psychology from I’m going to try to save even though even though prices are rising I’m going to try to save as opposed to look look at H look at housing prices look how much it cost to rise to raise a family I’m not even

Going to try to reproduce I’m not going to try to raise a family I’m not even going to try to build to to build or buy a house I’m just going to spend uh on you know a lamb skin tote bag and make myself feel better um but that that’s

That’s one stage then the next stage is I got to get rid of this money immediately and buy whatever I can find on the shelves I don’t care what it is that’s that’s hyperinflation but I wanted I wanted to bring this to the the point of um back to Silver again because

What I mean back in the 90s when I was a kid right there was still inflation but you could still you know hold onto a w of cash and like you know as a kid you could smell it and it smells like money and it makes you proud and like and

You’re like no I don’t want to spit like you have a you have an instinct you don’t at least some people have it more some people have less I don’t want to spend this because this is my money and if I spend it now now on this I won’t be

Able to spend it later on something else so you have a natural incl inclination to save but if if if we’re talking about a silver coin right uh versus let’s say a digital number in a bank account when you log into and you see a number on a

On a on a screen you have $1,000 versus you have $1,000 in weight and silver if you pay if you start young and you make kids understand what money is and what saving really is like saving real hard money it’s a shiny coin they want they

It’s even more of an instinct to hold on to it to save it as opposed to like a dollar bill which is it’s it’s nice but it’s just a piece of paper as opposed to even further from that a derivative of that which is you know a number you see

On a screen right so if you train your kids to uh to earn silver or to earn real money for chores they do around the house then they they they become immune to this despair nihilism that they see when the monetary system is falling apart because they say look I have

Silver it’s going up so this is the the reason that they’re becoming so despairing is because they don’t know what money is and our job when this is over is when their dollars are no longer worth anything and they have like a tote bag from the you know the Splurge that

They did today to make themselves feel better then we can say okay we have money we can start over and uh and even these people they have their their role to play right there’s no qualitative difference between between emptying your dollars to buy a tote bag and emptying

Or some luxury item some luxury consumer item and emptying your dollars to buy golden silver I’m not saying to empty them but we need everyone to come in and empty their dollars for anything they can and that means the dollar is dead we we’re just doing it more responsibly

Than they are but they’re coming to the conclusion that we’re coming to just in a much more superficial way but it’s essentially the same thing in the most basic sense the LIE of inflation makes you think that you have more money than you do uh and then it

Will it will incentivize you to buy things that you can’t afford and then all of a sudden the dollar is worth very very or you’ll go into debt and all of a sudden the dollar is worth very very little and you’re stuck right because you were living you were living a lie

And we’re all victims of that no matter how slow inflation is going um the the the difference between an inflationary system where people are still functioning and hyperinflation where it’s over is not that people are becoming more poor the it’s just that reality is revealing itself finally and um and then once

People tell me that let’s say they go on a a diet where they’re only um they’re only spending cash and not using credit cards right then they even then they have a more uh personal relationship with what money really is even though it’s not quite gold and silver it’s

Closer because it’s something physical and then they have more of an appreciation for resources whereas they they if they’re spend something they appreciate it more because they actually had to take the paper out of their wallet and give it to somebody and now their wallet is lighter right with gold

And silver it would be even more extreme imagine imagine what you would feel if you if in the end game you had to uh you know buy a house for your family uh with you know six seven eight ounces of gold or whatever it’s going to be and you

Have to like these coins that you’ve been stacking for so long you have to give them up to somebody and yeah you get a house it’s it’s very it’s very you’re very proud of yourself but you’re going to Value this house a lot more let’s say then uh if you had like a

30-year mortgage on it and you’re paying you know a th $2,000 $3,000 a month to a bank um you’d still value it then but if you buy it with your own real money it’s going to be even more valuable and it just gives you an idea of what things

Are actually worth in your life and to appreciate them more and to be connected more to what you acquire not with credit but with hard money and it gives you a connection to reality and it calms you down hopefully you will be able to apply these new insights to your Investments

And policy considerations as we close our journey with rafy Farber we are grateful for your involvement if not stay informed curious and seeking an understanding of the ever evolving world of Economics by liking sharing and subscribing to our Channel thank You