Trading & Investing: 3 Warning Signals, Bitcoin, Gold, Stock Trades

Master Trader Gareth Soloway breaks down the charts and macro data like nothing ever available to the public. Usually kept for institutions, Gareth reveals tactics, trade levels and analysis that will blow your mind and make you a BETTER investor/trader. He covers stocks, commodities and crypto and will walk you through everything you need for the day to be a winning trader and investor. The Game Plan rockets past CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg in quality and actionable alpha. The show is a quick 15-20 minutes LIVE. Gareth is all about pure charts and data, no emotion. These are the keys to profitable investing and trading. Tune in at 9am ET Monday-Friday or if you can’t make it, be sure to watch the LIVE recording which posts immediately after the show airs! Others are making money and learning valuable trading tactics, don’t miss out!

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Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction to the Game Plan
0:12 Market Overview: Stocks, Crypto, Commodities
0:26 Reminder: Twitter and YouTube Giveaway Announcement
0:41 Warning Signals for the Stock Market in March
2:53 Understanding Reverse Repo and Its Impact
5:00 Ending of the Federal Reserve’s Emergency Lending Program
7:22 Liquidity’s Role in Market Dynamics
9:00 Historical Gains in Market Cap Analysis
11:29 Implications of Government Debt and Money Supply Increase
12:44 NASDAQ and S&P 500 Analysis
14:31 Apple and Amazon Technical Analysis
16:15 Earnings Analysis: Workday and Salesforce
17:33 Lux Algo Trading Indicator Introduction
18:25 Bitcoin Market Update
20:00 Binance and Solana Technical Analysis
22:50 Gold and Silver Market Update
23:54 Corn ETF Analysis and Price Discussion
25:01 Closing Remarks and Giveaway Reminder

Happy Monday everybody Welcome to the game plan it’s TR time to get right back to action here in the stock market in the crypto markets and in the commodity market so thank you for joining me today here at verified investing we’re going to take it right over here before we get

Started just a reminder there’s 3 days left to follow us on Twitter verified investing on Twitter or on YouTube and again this will be given away this Thursday live on air all right so without further delay let’s get right into the charts here the first thing I

Want to talk about is some warning signals that I have for the stock market in March all right so we’re just about to March and one of the things that we have to recognize is the reverse repo is starting to come back to normalization now reverse repo basically means the

Banks have been parking or they were parking money at the FED all right when the Fed was offering higher interest rates or higher better deals than they could get out here in the US or in other places the money was being parked at the Federal Reserve the FED then was

Guaranteeing them to essentially come across and say we’ll give you that money back over time look at how they’re giving the money back so one of the keys here guys and this is really important to understand is that this Market we supposedly are in a restrictive Financial environment

But honestly that’s not true and what you can see here is that this was restrictive starting in in late 2021 all right think about this when did the stock market top out the stock market topped out in late 2021 right right over here okay right in this vicinity right

Here that was when reverse repo started reverse repo again Banks taking money and parking it at the Federal Reserve Reserve which takes it out of the ability for them to lend money and push money into the system if we look at this again folks take a look at this this is

Reverse repo going up and where does it top out right here in this period and then the banks start paying it back in 2022 when the markets bottomed right think about this all right when did the stock market bottom in October of 2022 what did that coincide with the top on

Rever verse repo because the the the the Federal Reserve was starting to pump money back to the banks that they had parked the banks had parked money at the fed the Fed was now starting to pay that money back and therefore again the reverse repo facility was going down but

Liquidity at the banks is skyrocketing and the reason why I bring this to your attention is because as you get back into more of a normalized level down here all right we’re not that far away now now we just have a little bit to go the liquidity that’s flowing back to the

Banks is going to start to be turned off or be minimal and again if you’re someone like me and you recognize that the liquidity in the system is pretty much everything to do with whether stocks are going up or not and think about this all right when people when

There’s a ton of money out in the system the money chases momentum which explains a lot of Nvidia CH explains a lot of the the Magnificent s and those runs that they’ve had all these things because again liquidity in the system chases what’s moving essentially it pushes into

And chases that moving so what we basically have here is reverse repo and let me clear off this chart so we can see it clearly reverse repo now is getting back almost and it’s not quite there yet but normalized levels would be somewhere in this area down here just a

Little bit more to go and just a reminder that essentially tells us that we’re at a point where the the the Federal Reserve is not going to be pumping as much money if at all back into the banking system so again supposedly we’ve been on in restrictive

Period but that’s not the case here frankly you can clearly see that is absolutely not the case as again this is this is again parking money at the Fed so it was taking money out of the system which is why it coincides with the stock market top here in late 2021 when did

The stock market bottom when we were at the height of what was money being parked at the Federal Reserve which was right here in late 2022 and as it’s flown back into the system stocks again have gone like this at least not not let’s be fair we know that the amount of

Stocks that are outperforming are minimal it’s basically a handful but that’s what liquidity chases it chases those now the other thing to keep in mind here guys there’s something called the the bank the short-term Bank funding or or or secure program I it’s BT FP Bank uh B Bank term short-term funding

Whatever it is the point is the Fed has said and by the way the this program that the Federal Reserve has it’s basically been an emergency lending program since March of 2022 right or 20 2023 when the Fed was thinking the banking system here when Silicon Valley

Was failing when all of these Banks were failing or being close to failing they introduced this Loan program and this loan program mean meant that any Bank could say hey we’re having problems here I want to borrow money from the Federal Reserve at basically almost zero interest rate it was an emergency plan

That the FED did to stop Gap more Banks from failing back in early 2023 March of 2023 well the banks what do you think the banks do they use Arbitrage they say oh we can borrow this money for 2% or whatever and then we can lend it out out for

42% perfect opportunity anyone who thinks that the banks are not going to utilize this is ridiculous they’re going to utilize it they’re going to push money into the system more liquidity into the system right well guess what the FED said on March 9th let me draw this in or write this in

March March 9th guys okay I believe it’s March 9th which is just a couple weeks away they are ending this program there’s no more free lunch well limited free lunch for the banks out there to just get cheap money and be able to lend it out at a higher rate essentially an

Arbitrage situation so again we have two significant liquidity drivers they are coming to an end or normalizing likely in March which means as an investor we need to be aware of that if you’re someone again that believes that money in the system is an issue by the way if

You read the latest fed minutes from last week the FED is definitely concerned that these programs have actually kept inflation higher and will make it harder for them they’ve addressed this this is why they’re talking so hawkish and why they’re ending these programs is to make sure

That it doesn’t create that second pop in inflation but again as we can see when liquidity gets sucked out of the market we know that the market goes down and when liquidity comes back in the market maret go up all right couple other charts on this macro Monday to

Show you guys take a look at this one this is just your your Healthy reminder that an inverted yield curve does not mean that again we’re not going to have a recession and it doesn’t happen when the yield curve inverts it happens when we get out of the inversion if you look

At here 1990 here’s your recession right here it’s in Gray hopefully you guys can see this but essentially it was when we uninverted right here that the recession hit here’s your inverted yield curve uninverted basically a month or two later recession inverted yield curve starts to go come back it un inverts

Recession here’s here’s Co we even had inversion going into covid uninverted we had that very short recession that the FED obviously and the government came out and just flooded with liquidity here’s your current period guys huge inversion we’re getting closer to uninversity but we’re not there yet but

When it un inverts right here at the 0% level that’s when you have to think there’s a recession coming over here all right and again I love pointing that out because when we inverted initially everyone panicked and was like oh my gosh we’re going to have a recession

It’s like no it tells you that eventually a recession is coming but you need to look for the uninversity my favorites I put this out over the weekend this is showing that here are your stocks and the biggest gainers in terms of market cap all right so again one the obviously Nvidia right

The recent gains by Nvidia monster gains just on the earnings but again 247 billion 197 billion 191 billion 19.8 billion 184 billion all the way down this list these are the biggest gains by market cap that we have SE seen basically ever ever these are the biggest gains I want to show you

Something if you look at the dates that I’ve highlighted here what we see is every single date is 2020 covid or after is that a coincidence the answer is no it’s because of this Factor here if you look at where we were preco with the FED balance sheet it was

3.76 trillion it has gone up 102% since then think again going back to the liquidity we were talking about which was driving the markets up look at that massive liquidity injection or essentially balance sheet that the FED remember the fed’s balance sheet it it basically means that they’re buying

Securities on their balance sheet and when they buy Securities they have to pay someone for that so that money goes into the system so huge rise in balance sheet 102% this one is showing your M2 money supply 15.5 trillion we’re now at 21 trillion up in Just 4 years or a

Little less than four years 39% and lastly guys government debt we know that the government here in the US just loves to spend that money and sure enough 55% gain in government debt which essentially is taxpayer our money debt is now up so if you look at these think

About these in terms of liquidity how much money printing you know this is huge money printing this is telling you straight up that there’s more money in the system this is US Government debt which again government debt taking on it means they’re pushing money into the

System and taking on that debt so all of that it coincides with these type of results all going back to what I was saying about liquidity now again we’re starting to see some signs here that maybe the FED is starting to realize oops this maybe’s not the best thing now

They can’t control the government necessarily but ultimately if we get our house our fiscal house in order maybe that becomes more you know realistic but again guys we have to be fair if you see the fiscal house come in order if you see the FED starting it’s going to mean

Stocks go down there’s no other way right there’s no other way you can’t take money out of the system at a huge percentage like it’s been put in and not create a recession I’m in the camp personally that recessions are normal they are normal they are healthy just

Like you have your ups and downs like a hill rolls up it comes back down gently if you don’t screw with the system it performs naturally yeah no one likes a little downturn but they’re shallower when you don’t screw with it when you inject so much liquidity it’s like

Injecting a ton of drugs what are you going to do you’re going to essentially create an issue where you kill yourself off or the the the kind of the the repercussions of getting off that drug the withdrawal is absolutely atrocious and that’s what’s happened and that’s

Why you saw 2008 2009 I don’t know how many out there still remember that you know now 15 plus years ago but nonetheless that was a horrendous period for the economy close to a you know essentially one of the worst since the Great Depression but same thing what do

You think’s going to happen if we continue on this path what type of downturn are we going to have to do to rebalance the scales and that’s the kicker there all right let’s go through a couple quick charts here guys I want to just quickly show the NASDAQ chart

Here uh let me erase these lines this is the only thing today I’m showing on the NASDAQ chart because it’s that powerful if you look at this chart on the NASDAQ 100 this is your bubble right here okay okay then we go up here to 2022 that was

Excuse me 2021 high and look at where the current NASDAQ 100 is trading right up here at that level exactly now that again when you’re thinking about trend lines the longer they go back the more powerful important they are if you have a trend line from yesterday to today or

From Friday to Monday it’s not that big of a deal yeah on a short time frame it’s going to play an issue but not on a longer time frame this goes back to 19 99 guys that is unbelievable how important that is okay couple other charts here let’s take a quick look at

The S&P this is the one thing that I’m continuing to watch this is a narrowing uh wedge pattern going back to October lows of 2023 look at how the market is staying inside but it’s getting very narrow we talked about this last week which way is it going to break is it

Going to break to the downside here if it does I think that’s very problematic or can it break break above for a little while can the rally continue but as these narrow it’s got to break one way or the other I would say within 2 to 3

Weeks and by the way this is all coinciding with what I’ve talked about with the FED ending that that blending program with reverse repo winding down all of this tells us there’s something on the horizon here the question is what all right taking a look at Apple Apple

Is still holding up here on this major trend line just a reminder here if we look at this it still hasn’t broken but if this breaks that would be significant last thing I want to show you here before I flip over and I got to keep

Moving along here take a look at this chart of Amazon all right Amazon pretty wild chart right amazing like going back to 2000 this is your pubble by the way right back here and then look at what we have right now incredible absolutely incredible but one of the things I was

Showcasing here is I want to show you guys this if you look at a crazy chart and you want to say oh man what the heck is this longer term chart going to be made of flip over to your logarithm mic I want to show you this cuz it’s pretty

Darn cool so if we go back and this is logarithmic and again this is when you want to use I mean everyone asks me do you use linear you know regular charts or logarithmic logarithmic is for when you want to see major things that happened a long time ago when price was

Way lower that’s why in crypto it works so well because crypto prices have been insane if you go back 10 years to where they are now what we can see is all of a sudden a chart that looked wacky starts to actually look semi intriguing and

Again if we just do this look at this look at that trend line right there all right this is going back now on Amazon to 2001 lows basically the dot bubble burst it dropped and from that point on look at that all right where did it bounce right

There it’s right into that double top as well so again for me as a Trader when you have long-term trend lines like this it’s worth it looking in terms of log because you want to see maybe it breaks there and that can give you a heads up

Or a leg up in understanding breakdowns or breakouts on these longer term view charts okay all right so that was one little chart I wanted to show you couple other things real quick guys workday reports this week um I’m going to flip this over to a different color because I

Don’t think you guys can see it that well we’ll do the RSI and by the way that’s RSI at the bottom the reason I want to show you this is and again I am not in this position I do not have any any qualms about it I’m only pointing

Out some interesting things the thing that I’m looking at is this move up here look at the RSI angling down so if I zoom in on that area here and we look at this we can clearly see a negative Divergence developing right here you have higher highs higher highs right all

The way up we could draw a trend line basically what’s the RSI looking like well start over here and look at that clearly a Downs sloping negative Divergence workday reports earnings after the Bell today again could it go up absolutely it could but let’s watch

And see if this is an indicator uh a good indicator going forward of this negative Divergence lastly I’ll show you CRM CRM much the same here they report earnings later this week and if we look at this same sort of thing right an upward sloping Trend meaning higher

Highs but look at over here very clearly lower lows on the RSI okay guys so again that’s something just wanted to quickly point out there on the charts uh follow me to the center screen real quick guys we’re just going to take 30 seconds to thank Lux algo I plan on Wednesday to

Debut the signal on this very show I want to show you a replay of how it works so come and make sure you’re tuning in on Wednesday to see the Lux algo indicator that I’ve created let’s take 30 seconds and thank Lux algo have you considered enhancing your trading

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Course we’re going to get to Bitcoin now Bitcoin over the weekend had a little bit of a float up just a couple days now again always remember don’t trust the weekend moves there’s too light volume you want to wait to see how it reacts during trading traditional Market hours

Monday through Friday doesn’t mean something can’t push up or break out it’s just you want to be more suspect of it so again what we were doing is we were starting to Trend down here going into the weekend and then Saturday and Sunday both green and then Monday

Already coming back in now we are off the lows here but again just remember from last week I’m going to keep it as simple as possible for you guys cuz I think honestly that’s what I like I like simple if we look here this is our

Previous high as I said last week that’s the only level right now I care about at $49,000 all right right now anything even a pullback to this level you could bounce off of it it would be a retrace to the scene of the crime all right upside resistance is basically 54,000

Now it’ll slowly throughout the week move to 55 because again it’s an UPS sloping trend line so always remember that that would be resistance the only thing that would concern me here is if we get below 49,000 right here and we confirm and I went over the confirmation

Signal last week if that happens then Bitcoin is in trouble but right now very simply anything in here consolidation if it dips here scene of the crime let’s see if it bounces only if it breaks here and starts trading below that 49,000 level do you need to be concerned all

Right couple other charts on crypto guys let’s look at binance here I want to show binance real quick if we look at the chart on binance here we can see again this is finally playing catchup which again is something of interest if we just look at some trend lines here I

Just want to draw a trend line here so look at this high and look at where binance is currently trading right so we take the highest point uh basically going back to November 9th of 2022 and we could see that this pivot high right here is right where current

Price is so you do have a little bit of resistance here it’s not a huge level but you do have a little resistance now I’m going to show you the level that I think if it gets to that might be a short-term top this one maybe but I’m

Not that thrilled with it in terms of a short-term top it probably can go through at least a 400 level look at this next level right here right in this vicinity right here I’m going to go back to the computer and draw a trend line as

Well as something else so if we look at and remember it’s all about Confluence of levels so if we take this level here and we draw it across that’s a good Pivot Point right there and then what I want to do is I want to do a Fibonacci

Retrace and I want to show you guys basically okay so if we look at the fibs we basically see an alignment of fibs with that secondary level there there we go we have the fibs pop up and so essentially what we’re seeing is that this High here and here’s your 50% FIB

Level okay so you’re looking at a level between 450 and 465 right in this Zone that to me would be your likely heavy resistance in the near term on binance all right so again just kind of keep that in mind and by the way it doesn’t mean it can’t be

Rejected here in all fairness it’s overbought short term would make sense for a small pullback but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it go to that play that level where remember the more factors that coincide at a current price the bigger the resistance or support level will be all right think about

Putting down bricks right if you do one layer of bricks it’s it’s it’s okay if you do two back toback layers it’s going to be firmer as a resistance lastly salana let’s take a look at this guy salana on the charts we can see here again there’s your longer term trend

Line you kept on retracing up to it right so it broke resistance resistance then you have this secondary trend line here that finally broke now again if we continue to see the same pattern you could see salana retest here right just like it broke and retested retested but

The thought process is that eventually it will come down even further right it’s just kind of repeating the same pattern breaks retrace breaks further then retraces the next one and so on and so forth levels of support you’re going to have right here around 93 or so and then back to your

$80.75 uh 77 to $80 level right there okay all right couple other charts obviously we’ll touch on gold real quick here um gold not a whole lot to update you here on gold it’s pulling back just a little bit last week was a tremendous week on Gold Guys it really was multiple

Updats in a row still hasn’t broken out Above This major 2070 7580 level right here that’s the big breakout but what I do see on the chart starting to form better and better right if we look at this up what are we starting to form here to me that looks like a bullish

Consolidation pattern and so if we can really break through this area here test here and break out this thing could have a breakout where again we could take a measured move from this low to this high and you could map it out and that would be again short-term Target of 2 400ish I

Still have a 25 and change Target I just don’t know again until we actually break out it’s basically the thought process I have it’s 12 months approximately from when we break out which is when the high should be put in so I’m waiting for that breakout to occur before we really get

Into that silver is doing minimal action it’s selling off a little bit today lots of support around 22 if we look at this this is a new chart corn this is an ETF that tracks corn it’s gotten crushed right I mean we had the big move up with

The breakout of the war um with Ukraine and Russia and everything like that because of a lack of supply and then you know what happens everyone every other country says wow prices are so high of corn and wheat we have to go plant some and then an over Supply crushes prices

But again what’s the remedy for an over Supply price price the lower price gets the less farmers will plant it going forward and So eventually we have to start seeing some sort of base level and again just to go to the weekly chart here where would weekly support be I’m

Going to show you guys right here on this trend line or put this trend line in basically 400 that’s what I would be looking for look at that beautiful level right there right through here here right through there and then this very very close we’re not quite there we’re

About 10 bucks away I believe but 10 bucks maybe 12 bucks away on this chart of corn from hitting some major technical support okay all right guys um just back to it here as always guys let me just grab my basketball here we do a little twirl here but

Anyways I I think the point here is guys I hope you like macro Monday I’m going to continue to bring you these really important charts that I think are groundbreaking don’t forget follow verified investing I think it’s invest verified on Twitter um and obviously our YouTube verified investing YouTube

Because again that’s how you’re going to win and we’re going to start doing these prize giveaways basically daily I mean literally 00 to $1,000 a day all you got to do is click that follow button so make sure you do that as always you guys rock the comments Rock and I’m going to

Throw this to Ben here a little chess pass here have a good one guys take care