There may be a ‘catch up’ trade for gold in 2024, says Worth Charting’s Carter Worth

Carter Worth, Worth Charting founder and CEO, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the outlook for gold, where the investing opportunities are, and more.

>>> WELCOME BACK TO “THE EXCHANGE.” 2023 WAS THE FIRST POSITIVE YEAR IN THREE FOR GOLD. PRICES ARE SITTING NEAR THEIR RECORD HIGHS SET IN EARLY DECEMBER. MY NEXT GUEST SAYS THE STREET CAN CONTINUE, BUT HE LIKES THE MINORS HERE, AS WELL. CARTER WORTH IS THE CEO OF WORTH

CHARTING. CARTER, I WOULD EXPECT SOMEONE LIKE YOU TO BE POO-POOING THE MINERS TRADE. I’M SURPRISED YOU’RE INTO IT. >> YOU KNOW, SOMETIMES THERE’S SOMETHING SO OUT OF FAVOR, SO UNDEROWNED, THAT IT’S RIGHT TO, I THINK, TAKE THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED. MINERS ARE PERENNIAL UNDERPERFORMERS.

IT’S INTERESTING, SINCE THE LAUVE LAUNCH OF THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE GOLD AND SILVER INDEX IN 199, GOLD MINERS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED. OBVIOUSLY A TOUGH BUSINESS. >> THIS IS MY POINT. IT SOUNDS LIKE IT’S A BAD BUSINESS THAT ONLY FOOLS WOULD WANT TO GET INVOLVED WITH.

>> YOU DIG A DEEP HOLE, GUYS GET TRAPPED IN THE HOLE. A LOT OF BAD STUFF. BUT THE POINT IS, THE SPREAD RIGHT NOW WITH GOLD ITSELF IS PRETTY EXTREME. SO WE HAVE GOLD WE THINK IS GOING A LOT HIGHER FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW.

SO AT SOME POINT, AGAIN, YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT A FAIRLY SMALL ASSET CLASS. ALL STOCKS IN THE PHILADELPHIA MINING INDEX ADD UP TO ABOUT $29D — $296 BILLION. IF YOU SEE HERE ON THE SCREEN, ON A TEN-YEAR BASIS, GOLD MINERS AND GOLD BOYIAN ARE EVEN.

SO THE SITUATION, I THINK, IS NOT ONLY THE MINERS HAVING LAGGED GENERAL EQUITY MARKET TO A SUBSTANTIAL POINT, BUT THEY HAVE LAGGED THE UNDERLYING METAL. SO AT SOME POINT YOU DO GET THESE SORT OF POPS THAT ARE CATCHUP TRADES. I THINK THAT’S WHAT WE ARE

LOOKING AT AS AN OPPORTUNITY HERE IN 2024. >> HAVING LAID IT OUT THAT WAY, I CAN’T IMAGINE THIS IS ANYTHING. DO YOU HAVE A PRICE TARGET IN MIND FOR GETTING OUT OF THIS TRADE? IT SOUNDS LIKE THIS IS ONE OF THOSE THREE, SIX, NINE-MONTH

OPPORTUNITIES AND NOTHING YOU WOULD BE INTERESTED IN FOR THE LONG, LONG RUN. >> IGHT. HARD TO KNOW, BUT ANY LONG-RUN THING, YOU HAVE TO START WITH THREE MONTHS, SIX MONTHS AND STICK WITH IT IF IT’S WORKING. BUT GDX IS THE VEHICLE TO USE,

THE MOST LIQUID OF ALL SORT OF MINING ETFs. THIS IS AN INTERESTING CHART. NOT BECAUSE I MADE IT, BUT BECAUSE IT TELLS A STORY. THIS IS A RATIO CHART. GOLD MINERS DIVIDED BY THE MARKET, SPY. AND SO WHAT WE KNOW IS THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE IS POOR,

BUT WE KEEP HOLDING THIS LEVEL FOR ABOUT ALMOST TEN YEARS. I THINK THAT THE WORD “DEVELOPMENTAL” IS APPROPRIATE. THIS IS CURATIVE HEALING. THE ARROW SPEAKS FOR ITSELF. OF COURSE, THAT’S A JUDGMENT OF MINE BUT THAT’S WHAT I’M THINKING. >> SO BEING BULLISH ON MINERS,

DOES THAT TAKE INTO A FACT THAT GOLD ITSELF HAS TO ALSO DO PRETTY WELL THIS YEAR? >> YES. BUT ALSO LET’S SAY GOLD JUST HANGS WHERE IT IS. GOLD IS AT ALL-TIME HIGHS. WHILE IT’S NOT ALWAYS IN DIRECT RELATIONSHIP OR INVERSE RELATIONSHIP, THEY DO MAKE THEIR

MONEY, RIGHT, FROM GOL