Cryptocurrency

GAME OVER: Bitcoin ETF Approved (What This Means)



GAME OVER: Bitcoin ETF Approved (What This Means)
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SOURCES:
https://casebitcoin.com/charts
https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/expense-ratio
https://www.icicidirect.com/calculators/cagr-calculator
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-here-should-you-invest
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/01/10/bitcoin-could-hit-150000-in-the-next-12-months-and-half-a-million-in-5-years-fundstrats-tom-lee.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/secs-compromised-account-was-not-due-to-breach-of-xs-systems-company-says.html

Prediction: Bitcoin ETF will now dwarf gold performance based on historical data

*None of this is meant to be construed as investment advice, it’s for entertainment purposes only. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

The most historically significant thing that’s ever happened to bitcoin just happened a spot Bitcoin ETF was finally approved in fact all 11 applications were approved by the SEC this Wednesday this is insane I can’t believe we finally did it now something else happened this week which will someday

Make it into a movie but it includes the SEC which argues bad passwords are securities fraud and Market manipulation in fact they’ve even sued other companies for having their accounts hacked online before but on Wednesday this week the sec’s primary X account was hacked and the hacker tweeted out

Today the SEC grants approval for Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered National Securities exchanges the cryptoverse of course exploded the price of Bitcoin went way way up and then a couple minutes later Gary gendler the guy in charge of the SEC tweeted from his own personal account that the

SEC account was compromised and they did not approve the Bitcoin ETFs well well price of Bitcoin corrected and it went way down leaving everyone to wonder who’s to blame okay and so I’m just going to reiterate it one more time it would appear that X has been hacked that

The US government the SEC has not been hacked uh which in of itself would have been awkward because that’s what the SEC sues companies for and in this case CNBC says obviously the SEC account was not compromised it wasn’t their fault it was the fault of X the platform except it

Turns out it wasn’t because a follow-up tweet from X and their security team revealed it was the sec’s fault because they didn’t have two- Factor authentication turned on which is also why I petition that the SEC sues the SEC for Securities fraud and Market manipulation how the turns have tabled

Negligence I tell you what’s even more embarrassing is that the next day the SEC had to admit they did actually approve all the spot Bitcoin ETFs JK we’re just pulling your leg the good thing is we got some memes out of it because the SEC thought this was no proo

But according to the narrator it was all proo now after the SEC was was hacked they found their favorite bookmarked post of Gary gendler admiring himself as a Simpsons character of course the suspect of who did this is the Bitcoin CEO but the real villain Scooby-Doo meme the jokes right themselves so anyway

Like I promised today I want to show you the long-term effects on the entire industry and its price and then later in the video I’m going to show you a cost breakdown of some of these ETFs which ones are good and which ones to maybe

Stay away from so let’s get into it hi my name is Andre J hope you’re doing well come for the finance and stay for the Bitcoin and the crypto Channel now before I explain what these ETFs are and how much they cost I want to First explain why this is so important because

Bitcoin was created in 2009 as a way to give people a different way to hold on to their wealth that was outside the traditional banking system and their bailouts because Bitcoin couldn’t be bailed out and that was really important because for context that was just one year after the great financial crisis of

2008 and at first I think Bitcoin wasn’t supposed to be some Challenger or replacement to this system even throughout its own history it had a lot of internal conflict as to what it actually was was it a cash replacement for sketchy transactions on the Internets the government couldn’t Trace

You turns out not really it wasn’t as Anonymous as people thought it was was it maybe a currency and it kind of was when it was cheap to use turns out though once it got too popular it became too expensive to use as a currency was

It maybe an inflation hedge or a store of value what was it right the narrative sort of evolved But ultimately what it really was was just there for anyone to use however they saw fit and as it grew it became hated by all the grown-ups in

The room they tried to fight it and they tried to attack it but eventually they realized they couldn’t just get rid of it they couldn’t regulate it and they couldn’t shut it off the Pandora’s Box was open and as it grew it made a lot of Frenemies along the way I’ve always said

Is that Bitcoin doesn’t have value and I don’t care other people do with Bitcoin but I was also point out is that the actual use cases are sex trafficking tax avoidance you know anti-money laundering uh terrorism financing Bitcoin is for criminals I tell you that’s why we’re

Involved in it it’s true look it up weird stuff but I think all the grown-ups at this point who opposed it have finally had to admit that this thing is not going anywhere and it’s finally here to stay they’re excited cuz they know they’ll make billions for the

Management fees so let’s now talk about how all of this will actually affect bitcoin’s price so the closest prediction for what would happen in all of 2023 was from Tommy Lee of fundstrat he was the closest one to calling the economy what would happen to the stock

Market and inflation Tom uh Happy New Year uh first off congratulations on your calls this year you’ve been directionally correct that’s hard to do so kudos to you you’re top dog now 5200 you have the high estimate for the S&P 500 for 2024 now because he was extremely accurate with his prediction

The world really values what he has to say and lucky for us he’s a huge supporter of Bitcoin and here’s what he says what happened to Bitcoin in 2024 give me your um your 1 year and 5e price target for Bitcoin uh I think in the next 12 months uh something over 100,000

You know maybe 150,000 and you know in the next 5 years again it’s you know it’s a there’s a finite Supply and now we have a a potentially huge increase in demand with a spot Bitcoin approval so I think in 5 years you you know something around half a million would be potentially

Achievable I love grape juice very old finely aged grape juice actually it’s not this is a vitamin C cuz I think I’m getting sick it’s gross so Tommy Lee says that because of this ETF approval it could get Bitcoin in the six figure range just this year and in 5 years it

Could get to half a million dollar per Bitcoin now the question is is he too bullish and is he just saying that because he holds a giant bag of Bitcoin and there is probably some truth to that but I did some simple math and here’s where he’s coming from Over The Last 5

Years the total return of Bitcoin was 1,872 that’s what’s called a cumulative return which I got by adding up the Last 5 Years of bitcoin’s returns now we have to take that number and convert it into a yearly growth rate and the fancy word for that is compound annual growth rate

And the acronym for that is kager we have an Intergalactic kager Men In Black just me okay anyway bitcoin’s kager or compound annual growth rate is almost 80% per year in The Last 5 Years now as Bitcoin gets older and older and as more people have access to buy it its returns

Will actually get smaller and smaller and how we know this is because if we look back even further in bitcoin’s history the returns are bigger so we know for sure that as Bitcoin matures the returns will get smaller and smaller and smaller and smaller with each year

That passes now for Bitcoin to 10x in the next 5 years the returns would actually be consistent with this Theory because a 10x over 5 years time is a 58% kager or compound annual growth rate now let’s take a look at something even more bullish Kathy Woods prediction

Which is anywhere between 600,000 to 1.5 million per Bitcoin by 2030 our base case uh is in the $600,000 range our bull case and we think the probability of the bull case has increased with this SEC approval this is a green light our bull case is 1.5 $5 million by 2030

Sounds absolutely insane but let’s use something in the middle a little bit more reasonable $1 million by 2030 which also sounds insane let’s use that same math though because from today that’s six compound annual growth periods and from 46,000 where it’s at today to 1 million in 6 years is a kager or

Compound anal growth rate of 67% which is actually in line with the same theory of diminishing returns so the point I’m trying to make is that I’m not just throwing out these random numbers that sound really high to excite people this is using historical context of what

Bitcoin has done in the past now on the subject of past history though let me show you another comparison that not everyone is going to agree that I should be making but I think it’s a fair one and I’ll explain why let’s compare Bitcoin to Gold’s ETF after gold was

Securitized and it was turned into an ETF gold’s price 4X in about 7 years now the argument that I want to address though is Andre you can’t compare bitcoin’s ETF to Gold’s ETF because back then less people had gold in their portfolio because less people had access

To it than people have access to Bitcoin today and that is true it’s way easier to buy Bitcoin today even before the ETF came along it was already simple back then you had to buy physical gold and the hassle of storing it and ensuring it that no one wanted to deal with until

The securitization of gold in this digital form that is a great Point except I think it’s missing one really big important piece of context at the time countries and nation states had huge amounts of gold in their reserves the big money was already tapped out so that means that four times multiplier to

Gold’s price was mostly retail driven now Bitcoin has the exact opposite problem it’s the big money and the nation states that are now chasing it it’s the retirement accounts the Pension funds the 401ks the IRAs and the Fortune 500 companies where we could see billions of dollars flowing into Bitcoin

Over the next 6 years so that 10x multiplier or 20x if you’re Kathy Woods could actually be reasonable in the next 6 years even if it’s not mostly retail driven which even in that regard I still think Bitcoin has miles to go on top of that since Bitcoin Supply is having in

2024 its flow will become less than gold so Bitcoin will become more rare than gold by its rate of production and a spot Bitcoin ETF actually removes Bitcoin out of the circulating supply of which already 70% doesn’t want to be moved or sold so in theory we should see

A supply and demand shock on both sides of the equation which means really good things for bitcoin’s price but all I’m really saying is I do think it’s fair to compare Bitcoin to Gold’s ETF and I’d even say that Bitcoin has the edge here but I am biased so take that into

Consideration I just think Andre wants you to buy Bitcoin so you can bump his bags my videos and if I had 10 channels like mine would not even be able to budge several hundred billion doll market caps and ones that are approaching a trillion because math so

However you want to invest is totally up to you it’s your choice I have no stake in it and Bitcoin will do its thing with or without me now let me give you a breakdown of some of these ETFs and their expense ratios which is our yearly

Cost right now the worst ETF is ticker symbol gbtc so if you see that maybe reconsider it because right now they have a 1.5% annual expense ratio and just to give you an idea of just how much money that is a $10,000 investment with them after 40 years assuming 8%

Returns means you’d end up with 124,000 after having paid $93,000 in fees so just remember that what seems like a small 1.5 to maybe 2% expense ratio could end up costing you 40% of your overall returns which is insanely expensive so be very careful now at least seven of these ETFs are

Also getting rid of their fees for a limited time some of them will be charging 0% fees for 6 months or until their fund reaches a billion dollars in size whichever comes first and then afterward their expense ratio is between .2 to .5% but stay as close as you can

To the 2% I think the top three though that are eventually going to compete with with each other is going to be Invesco Fidelity and black rock because they have the name brand and the money to create a really solid product Fidelity for example is charging a 0%

Management fee until July 31st so that’s roughly 7 months from now which means that based on this metric Fidelity is the winner but after that 7 months period is up they’ll be charging a quarter of a percent .25% which is not going to be the lowest at that point but

The difference between 0.25 and20 is 500 hundreds of a percent which over 40 years is only $335,000 that might be worth the premium if you trust Fidelity’s brand and you think they’ll be around 40 years from now because they have been around for a long long time now the truth is right

Now I can’t tell you which one of them is the best based on which one has the lowest fees because it’s a lot more complicated than that like some of these companies will be buying their Bitcoin from different places at different price points and how much it costs them to

Store it will be different but all of these uncertainties will be reflected in the hidden cost of the ETF itself and as investors what we’re looking for is the one that tracks the price of Bitcoin the closest to itself that’ll become more obvious in the future but beyond the

Numbers there’s also other things to consider like some people value brand name and recognition and the age of a company like Fidelity it’s almost 80 years old but some of these other companies with less money have a lot more experience erience with protecting Bitcoin throughout hard times and these

Are just some of the things to consider now personally I’m running an experiment where I’ve invested $100 into each of the ETFs and in theory if all of them are created equally I should end up with the same amount of money but I think that over time I’ll end up with a clear

Winner and I’ll tell you more about it in the future when I figure it out now personally if it were me I don’t think I’d invest in any of these ETFs because I think buying Bitcoin and holding on to it myself is the best thing that I can

Do because I actually control it and there are no fees I use coinbase to do this which is where most of these ETFs will hold their Bitcoin and then I can transfer it to code storage now you can use my link down below if you find one

To support my channel otherwise let me know if you’d like me to make a guide for you but I do think ultimately this is the next chapter in bitcoin’s life where most of the grown-ups have to admit that this thing is here to stay and I say most because Vanguard and

State Street still don’t want to participate they think that unlike stocks and bonds most crypto assets lack intrinsic value and generate no cash flow that’s fine maybe someday they’ll change their mind I don’t think Bitcoin needs them but ultimately I think the best outcome from all of this is that it

Will give people a chance to invest in Bitcoin in a way that’s easy cheap and most importantly safe and I don’t mean safe like safe from Price fluctuations because Bitcoin could still go to zero but safe from the perspective that any regulated brokerage which is all the

Popular ones will be given the same sort of protections and insurances to the Bitcoin ETFs that they offer for all the other Securities I’m talking about sipc and that protects against the losses with a limit of up to $500,000 which includes up to $250,000 in cash and that is amazing and it’s a

Huge deal well there you go so we finally did it let me know down in the comments below if you want me to make a video guide on how to self- custody Bitcoins you can avoid all the fees buying on an exchange transferring to Cold Storage it’ll be a whole guide or

If you want to make a follow-up video on these ETFs and which one is the best once we have more data otherwise have a wonderful rest of your day smash the like button subscribe if you haven’t already don’t forget to grab your free stocks links are down below and then go

Track them automatically with a spreadsheet link Down Below in my patreon love you thank you so much for watching I’d love to see you back here on Monday and Friday sometimes a Wednesday see you soon bye-bye

23 Comments

  1. Thanks bro for your great videos. Your a very good teacher. If you could do a video on buying bitcoin that would be helpful. Ive watched your older vid but wasn't sure if anything has changed. Ty

  2. BTC etf will never be approved until they can control and classify it to the point they can release the official USD as cryptocurrency. Problem is they have failed big time in trying to fit it under current regulation frameworks. The original crypto ideology is dead, they didn’t create it, but somehow they believe they should control it, proof that we are not free. Why create anything new. It would be good to see decentralized centralization so that new debt inflates the supply and when people pay back loans it automatically burns the debt away and the government keeps the difference. Including algorithms to auto apply interest rates up and down or whatever. Once the ability for human error is removed the government may function slightly better. Also voting for anyone is a vote that you need to be led and micromanaged by a person you never met. Wake up

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