Gold and Industrial Miners are the New Meme Stocks in 2024: Tony Greer

Tony Greer of the Morning Navigator has made a bold statement: Gold and Industrial miners are the new meme stocks. In this interview, we explore the reasons behind his assertion that metals and mining are set to take off in 2024, along with getting his thoughts on which commodities will be the biggest winners. Tony gives his take on uranium, gold, silver, energy, and more.

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00:00 Introduction
00:48 Are Commodities the New Meme Stocks?
06:12 Thoughts on the Broad Market
12:55 Recession and Industrial Metals
15:51 Tony’s Investment Strategy
20:59 Finding Trends in the Market
23:36 Using Social Media to Gauge Sentiment
27:22 Hoping for a Dip in Uranium
29:41 Thoughts on Silver
33:30 Oil, Natural Gas & Coal

#commodities #investing #gold

Hello and welcome to commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodity space my name is Jesse day and before we dive in standard disclaimer nothing here is investment advice do your own due diligence and this episode is brought to you by moneymetals.com the most trusted

Online bullan dealer and depository in the United States use money medals for purchasing selling or storing physical gold and silver hit the link in the description below to learn more and use coupon code Jesse day to get a $10 discount on your first purchase and today’s guest is a market analyst and

Trader and the editor of the morning Navigator we’re going to be discussing the commodity space why he thinks some mining stocks may be the next meme stocks it’s Tony Greer welcome to the show Jesse how are you doing today man doing excellent thank you so much for

Coming on and I want to start with a tweet that you made recently where you said it was actually the end of last year where you said gold and Industrial miners are the New Meme stocks they’re all going to go vertical in 2024 and nobody has them so could you expand on

That thought for us are you talking about the metals complex across the entire Spectrum Industrial Metals in particular along with gold um what what are your thoughts expand on that yes absolutely so that that’s something that I saw happening at the beginning of the year that kind of coincided with a

Dollar slide that I think is pretty imminent you know it seems to me like the bond market wants to rally and rates are going to go lower like broadly speaking we can get into a conversation about it for sure um and there are two sides to the argument as always but with

The view that rates are going to turn slightly lower that we have a chance to see the dollar turn lower with it since we saw the dollar you know bid only when we were raising rates so I feel like if the dollar is going to back

Off that if the dollar backs off and China continues to weaken China is going to have no choice but to go to you know the next stimulus measure that is generally something that is you know lights of fire under the base metal sector and I just kind of had the idea

You know I was fishing with that tweet quite a bit which is something that I always do um and I definitely got I was calmed down my bullishness was kind of tempered by the fact that that tweet went nuclear you know what I mean like if you write positive things about gold

You get 500 likes automatically just for being nice right you write you write something that’s bullish the stock market and you literally I I’ll tweet I have 50,000 followers and I’ll get like six likes if I if I dare write something bullish the S&P right that’s like a do

Not write like that on Twitter please you know so that you know at least allows you to stay bullish stocks right that’s very easy that’s very easy to understand feel when you know when you when you lay out a tweet like that and it gets no attention you can just

Sit here and watch stocks go up you know and so I was getting that feeling in the commodity stocks and I just feel like there’s a cocktail in this market you know obviously we’re not seeing it today with gold stocks backing off and the miners backing off from

Their Highs but you know there there’s a cocktail where I think that this sector is really appealing right to me I it goes with the idea that rates can back off the dollar can back off you know as a kind of theme this year you know and I

Know that it’s not going to be a one-way train etc etc but if I can live with a lower yield and lower dollar theme I can at least live with the idea that base Metals you know while their inventories are kind of you know kind of low to

Medium like kind of low to Middle side of historic levels that I they can have a chance to go up and especially if China starts stimulus and I know that from talking to portfolio managers and clients in the market when I suggest these stocks everybody

Goes yeah yeah no I don’t think you know look at my Nvidia right why do I want to look at in don’t you see Nvidia I own Nvidia yeah I don’t need medals in mind you know what I mean so I do get the sense that the setup is there you know I

Kind of got disappointed with the last pullback in um copper failure you know we had we have the the idea that China is g to provide some kind of stimulus copper just tried to break out fell flat on its face again you know it’s like the

Third time in the last year so it really can’t get going out of its way but I feel like you know that’s why everybody is kind of walking out of the ring so to speak right I’m talking about the trading ring and that’s what happens when there’s nothing going on people

Walk out of the ring and then the next thing you know there’s a huge crowd in that ring because something is going on so that tweet was a little bit speaking to that idea trying to float the idea to see like who’s got this stuff and what’s

Amazing is just that you get all the attention in the world on Twitter when you tweet about metals and Mining like I think every single I think every single human that owns a a ounce of gold or or a a physical gold coin is on Twitter watching for gold and and metal tweets

You know and so that tweet was really really popular and it was a sentiment gauge for me and when it went out and everybody you know was all over it I was like uh okay maybe this is a little too popular I don’t know but I still feel

Like that setup is there I could go on and on and people can push back against that especially with the way the screens look now and I totally get that you know what I mean and so very much so I’m I’m a Trader kind of looking to find the the

Winning horses in the sector race every year you know that’s kind of part of what I do Jesse and what my clients have come to appreciate me for is that I can get a sniff early on in the year as to how this year is going to pan out you

Know we had we had it right two years ago when Tech backed off and all the and all the material stocks went higher we had it again right last year when Tech recovered and so this year I’m kind of in the weeds trying to figure out you

Know what aside from uranium is going to go bat crazy this year and I haven’t decided what yet uranium and cryptocurrency I haven’t decided what yet but I feel like where scenarios is really positive for gold in 2024 also so that’s another reason I was bullish that

Um on that Metals tweet so I don’t I don’t want to keep going I want to let you ask the questions no that was that was a great summary there and are you also bullish on the broad Market at present because there seems to be this either or mentality out there that for

Commodities to rip the broad Market needs to crash and and as long as the S&P and the NASDAQ continue to grind higher well Commodities aren’t going to happen their chance to kind of shine so I’m wondering what your thoughts are there on the broad Market as well I

Would tend you know that that’s kind of what the market is telling us right I am bullish the stock market at the moment I’m long the S&P on my view Matrix since November 14th when I thought the market sent a really clear message when we got

Um that was the middle of November we got October CPI that was like a tick of a tick either way from in line and that was the day the bond market decided decided okay we’re done with inflation theme it is over and the bond market

Took off like a bat out of hell the stock market rallied sharply the dollar curled over really sharply and there were 17 sectors of the S&P that had two Sigma breakout rallies so to me the market is still reacting to that day when we said when the bond market said

The inflation theme dead over buried for you know until something dramatic happens so now we’ve had three CPI days since then that have all generated you know a kind of similar if not sort of diminishing returns type of response where the stock market the the excuse me

The bond market gets the CPI number says yeah that’s not inflationary at all right now and starts rallying stock market says o lower rates out here let’s take Tech to the Moon you know and that just seems like with the with the AI tailwind and the cryptocurrency Tailwind

That it could be another big year for technology and things like that so I’m bullish that stuff and tell me the other part of the question so that I can answer it properly I was just that that was generally the question but also the the fact that most people out there seem

To have an either or mentality when it comes to Commodities or Tech I I hear very few people who are bullish or bearish on both it’s usually one or the other maybe you could explore that dichotomy a little bit yeah you know I think it’s just speaks to that

Correlation that we’ve seen that’s really sharp lately you know where you know if rates are on the rise because inflation is a problem then portfolio managers look at Natural Resources stocks and metal stocks and say oh we got to get long some of that that’s like thematic here right we’ve got inflation

In the air we’ve got you know the FED raising rates to try to combat it that’s when these stocks were doing fairly well um and now if we’re going to lower rates and we’re going to be on a path or at least the market is going to send a

Signal that we’re expecting a lot of rate cutting next this year it’s kind of like Drop what you’re doing in natural resources and buy every sector of Technology right because that’s just the this that that’s what’s been performing that’s what’s been working right and we even saw the year that rates um two

Years ago and kind of rates were still you know chugging and chugging higher Tech got killed in 2022 right that was the great rotation trade I called it where everybody rotated out of technology and into natural resources that year right so that can happen the opposite can happen

But it seems like whatever the correlation has been one to one if rates are falling Tech is flying if rates are going up we’re fighting inflation that’s a positive usually there are Commodities that are sending that inflationary impulse and what’s really important now as a dynamic you know behind the

Scenes of the October November inflation data being you know non-existent into the end of last year we’ve got Commodities all kind of curling down to the the bottom of the ranges again to start off this year as we price in this sort of aside from natural gas and uranium but we’re

Pricing in this sort of deflationary malaise already that the bond market has got us set up for right and it goes with the narrative that all the recession Bros are out there like oh yeah rted yield curve been reverted for so long recessions coming etc etc and like I

Don’t even know what to think about that I don’t I don’t ever sit here and predict recessions a waste of my time um and so I’m going to react to the bond market saying if the bond market looks like it can get up and rally like it can

This year you know maybe not sharply and everything is going to be in fits and starts but I feel like the inflation Genie is currently in the bottle I’m looking for it to come back out because you know we still doubled the balance the FED balance sheet A couple of years ago

And this is the inflation that we’re living through now so it’s not going to just go away my idea though Jesse is that you know on the first rip up of inflation when we had $5 gas at the beginning of the Biden Administration

Etc we got to a high print of nine and a half or nine something right in CPI there’s no way in my opinion that Jerome Powell is going to let that print get anywhere near nine and a half again so right so this is my scenario is that

Even when inflation comes back yeah there might be a couple of upticks there might be one morning you come in and and the CPI number is you know five 50 T you know 50 basis points higher than expected or something like that um because this inflation seems kind of

Politically structural if we’re going to continue to push on electric batteries and and things like that and we’re going to you know try to get away from fossil fuels we’re going to have more and more inflation so it’s kind of structural but my point is to come full circle is that

As inflation ticks back up I think that you’re going to see Jerome Powell come with some sort of hammer and be like yeah absolutely not are we allowing this inflation to creep back into the picture especially if it happens this year because it’s too politically toxic so

We’ll get an inflation Bubble Up back to 5 and a half% or 6% and then they’ll you know say something and it’ll fly back down again so that’s kind of how I’m looking for things that’s I think why there’s that dichotomy of either belong Tech or belong natural resources right

Because when the market paints that scenario of the low rates High liquidity Tech is flying AI is flying Bitcoin is flying what do you need gold for in that scenario to weigh down your account right so that’s I think a little bit about how the market looks at it what do

You need oil for at the bottom of the range right XLE it’s you know 3% of the S&P it’s been 3% of the S&P you know and no matter what we do EMP is not going to become a bigger part of the S&P until we do away with this electronic battery

Stuff and say okay let’s go back to fossil fuels because we know that works so that’s just some of the some of the things going on nice yeah I want to touch on the energy space a little bit later and get your thoughts there and you mentioned the recession question and

Yeah you’re right we’re seeing people posting data um different indicators all the time people claiming that it’s impossible we won’t have a recession some people are saying it’s going to be bigger than the Great Depression and yet things keep chugging along for the time being and everybody’s expecting people

Swore that it would be in 2023 and now those same people are saying well I got it a little wrong it’s definitely going to be in 2024 now um and then you also have the bearish view on Industrial medals from people in that camp because they think well the recession’s going to

Hit when it does that’s going to kill demand and Industrial Metals copper Etc is not going to be the place to be so I’m wondering what your thoughts are there what your response would be to to people who say that put it this way they uh you know if we’re doing an arm

Wrestling match for now like if I had a little bit of an advantage when medals were on the highs you know those guys all showed up and rained on my parade and brought us right back to sort of an even match right they’re not kind of dead on the year they’re not getting

Killed on the year but they are certainly kind of back in the hole that they came from um and I think that that’s something that I have to respect right you know I was definitely really really excited by the nipon steel for us steel trade you know that’s just like an

M&a deal that generally can get sectors make sectors come alive right you have another a few other you know large players in the market that look at that and say hm so you know we should be partnering up with somebody else before we get swallowed or things like that and

You know that’s generally good for to trade in a sector it’s usually good news and then when there was kind of you know no no follow through on that there was great news in Sentry Aluminum stock rallied sharply and so I thought that was another thing that was going to

Ignite the sector and the recession Bros just came back after it you know and it’s hard to it’s hard to sort of hold up that view that the metal stocks are going to survive when all of a sudden you know there’s one slight Lurch higher in the dollar and they all fall apart

Again and you’re like oh man you know like this you know this had the chance to be a trend for the year you know lower dollar higher base Metals higher industrial medals and Mining the nipon deal Century aluminum has good news right there things starting to jump out

Of the gym that’s the way the scenario sets up when the sector has a great year so I was really hoping for that I’m a little bit on my heels right now I got to be honest with you right like a lack of follow through is a problem

Um we haven’t pulled back into technical danger but we’re into a place where I think it’s worth buying them again and so that’s kind of what I’m working on with a couple of my clients and and things like that so I don’t think that

Trade is by any means dead uh but it is you have to respect the fact that they pulled back right after a huge set of headlines that that got them going so I’m a little bit tempered on that bullish view got it I would like to get some insight into how you approach

The mining sector in particular the areas that you generally invest in do you look at the exploration space is it development producers ETFs royalties also curious on your time Horizon as well yeah I’m really all about you know getting my clients into the sectors that I think are going to perform right so

You know whether that you know that that’s how I’m looking at mining right now where I I still think that in this year there’s a chance that they have a decent year I haven’t thrown in the towel I still think there’s a chance they have a very good year you know we

We need a few things to develop um and I’m really really Jesse I’m I’m not a specialist like you know I watch the big stocks in you know the big ETFs you know so but I’m generally trating xme or GDX as the vehicle of sort of where markets

Are going to Value metals and Mining stocks you know it it was easy to to sort of buy the dip in Gold stock excuse me it was kind of easy to buy the dip in Gold stocks um they were way oversold versus gold on the lows and

That’s generally one of the time you know one of the signs that you look for if you’re going to go ahead and take a chance so those were easy to trade off of the lows and then they got back into the middle of the range and failed again

With gold at the highs so that’s a little bit of a disappointment to me right there in the gold miners right you know gold is still above 2K you know a couple of bid offers away from the all-time high at 2135 in fact it’s 100 bucks away from

The all-time high and gold miners have fallen back to you know below 30 28 offered and you know they about to get thrown out the window again so that’s a little bit disappointing but you know I’m also not every client is after raging performance right I I talk to portfolio

Managers that are after you know the best basis point of performance they can get their hands on and I talk to family offices that kind of want their pile of money to be there in five years and 10 years later when they go back and check and look at it right so

It’s not always about you know we have to be in the High Flyers sometimes it’s about I’m cool owning these metals and Mining stocks or these exploration and production stocks or for a while these uranium stocks before they took off but it was like I’m cool owning these

Because I kind of like being attached to hard assets if I’m GNA go to sleep at night and you know I’m okay with not having up 38% on the year because sleep a little better with a little less volatility and I’m okay with up 10 or

15% on the year you know it’s like that’s a very clear dichotomy between a lot of the you know I have to understand like I have to make sure I put on the right hat when I’m talking to clients you know if you’re talking to individual Traders and and and individual investors

You know they’ll trade they’ll trade C4 Dynamite if you put a Ticker on it on the screen right like they’re not afraid of anything um you know but then you have some you know some gentlemen that you talk to that are a little slower moving and and you know not as anxious

To be a part of that shooting match you know and they kind of want to be over in the sidelines with their pile of gold and stocks and they don’t want to be bothered you know so that’s a little bit of an easy guide into those names when

They’re getting beat up and they’re undervalued you can always get like you know you can always get family offices that to you know put some chips on the table and and names like that you know if you make smart calls and and generally we’ve we’ve been very lucky

With it and my time frame Jesse just to address address that I’m usually looking for at least like a quarter or two of of a a Runway out ahead of me you know I I go from this kind of two week to two Monon time frame pretty quick and that’s

Just because you know I noticed that from analyzing my trades if I stay alive for two weeks I I usually have a chance to get into a trend and stay in a trade for quite a bit longer than that you know and usually if I get bucked off the

Bronco within two weeks time like that thing’s not trading either that or I missed the trend or something like that so that’s kind of how things morph on my book where like you know I think this is a good buy for the next couple of weeks

Here you know with the idea that in within the bigger narrative that it can be okay and maybe catch a trend from there like I had uh we you know I’ve been fortunate enough to go into like home builders you know W with that sort

Of view and be like yeah I think they’re okay for now like I think rates are going to go you know down a little bit and next thing you know they’re up 20% you know rates are falling further all of a sudden you know you get some

Positive data out of the housing market and they’re up on this trending run again you know and so now that’s what the perfect scenario for me as a tactical Trader what I’m going to do from there is just keep moving my stop loss up below the markets until it’s in

The black and until it’s in a smart place technically to get out and that that’s when it goes perfectly if you will you know so that kind of addresses the time frame where I go in kind of you know trying to stay alive for a shter

Period of time and then kind of look for developments where it can become a trending trade so you have a bit of a shorter time frame I think than a than a lot of guests on this show um and you mentioned Trend following there so how

What what is it that you look at that indicates you might be able to jump on a trend is it strictly technical indicators that that guide you to an investment decision no not necessarily technical um it’s it’s really I guess it’s associated with technical but I call it performance indicators right one

Of one of the I don’t know one of the ways that I make the sausage behind the behind the scenes here is that I have a spreadsheet that I built um and have been following really closely since I started my own analysis and newsletter right since I stopped

Working for somebody essentially where I had built it essentially to follow the markets and now I use it to really follow but my point is that I spend a lot of time studying daily weekly monthly quarterly and annual closes in things and annual performance in things right and sometimes sectors catch my radar

Just because they’re positive four weeks in a row it’s like hey like you know at least that’ll jump out from me that that’ll jump off the spreadsheet at me and say hey just so you know take a look at this this thing’s up four weeks I

Don’t care what it is I don’t care if it’s health care which I know nothing about I don’t care if it’s utilities I don’t care if it’s uranium OR tech stocks that catches my attention right and so sometimes that’s the first thing that happens when a move Comes Alive off

The bottom right and there’s nobody looking at it right this was a sector that was kind of asleep and now all of a sudden it’s kind of you know on the move and you look at a chart and you get the idea like wow it’s still early you know

Like this thing this thing is just crawling out of a hole just getting started like you know this headline makes sense then you know so that’s kind of what I’m generally hoping you know to look for and and have that kind of a runway on some of the stocks but you

Know sentiment is really important as well in this whole picture you know and I don’t know I don’t know why I generally jump to that from time frame I don’t know if you want to go into that but you know you like I said with the when you asked me about that initial

Tweet it’s like you know you can go on fin TWiT on any given day and any given sector and kind of just do a little search down and get a good idea of how the Market’s looking at that whether from the long side from the short side

You know whatever it is but that’s a really important thing to me like if everybody’s bullish something and I’m I’m I’m the L guy to the party it’s like I’m really hesitant to jump in unless something you know dramatic happens a big shakeup of some sort so that’s kind

Of how I’m looking at things Jesse well when it comes to fin twit do you ever worry about getting caught in an echo chamber in that sense because like when we look at uranium for instance like now uranium’s at a point on Twitter where if you just make a post that says hash

Uranium with a fire Emoji next to it you’re G to get a hundred likes and a whole bunch of retweets and everybody’s going to be all in on it but when you think about the uranium investing Community or just this group of degenerates and I count myself among

Them who are just so enthusiastic about this commodity that maybe they don’t represent the investment community at large so do you ever worry that like maybe by using fin twit as a sentiment indicator that maybe you’re you’re getting inside that Echo chamber yeah but you do it against you know the the

You know it’s kind of like my screens are are telling me stuff here and fwit is just a little corner of that right it’s not it’s not the whole picture um you know it’s usually what that looks like against the backdrop of the screens

Right and and one of the most uh one of the most pronounced sentiment bubbles that we were in was I’m trying to think it was I think it was last fall when stocks were on their ass around 37 3600 right and I’d love to look it up

Just to put this in front of me because Jared dillian hold up um Jared dillian was the one that pointed out that we were in this massive massive yeah it was exactly it was October of 2022 so it was two years ago two Falls ago but that was the S&P had

Created from 4,800 to 3600 and the bear porn was so pervasive right it was so easy to go around and find Bears beating their chest all over the place you know that you were like okay this is when something happens right and then we had that day that I’ll never

Forget when the S&P tumbled from 3600 to 3500 and back to 3700 bid in the same day and I am timestamped to that I was like that was it that’s a good low that is the way bottoms are formed when the whole entire world is looking down right

The whole world was like ah we broke the bottom of the range here we go here comes a th000 points one up 100 up 200 and the S&P rallied a thousand points from there you know so I’m just saying that like you can feel like that was palpable like Jared dillian was already

Talking about like we’re this is the most negative sentiment I’ve ever seen like stocks are not going to go down anymore they’re just not like it’s unbelievable like the the taxi drivers bearish the S&P asking me if his 401k is going to be okay you know I mean that’s

The bottom um so that’s that’s somehow how powerful it is Jesse you know what I mean so that’s why you have to pay really really really close attention to this stuff like whoa Boeing door flies off that’s a short that’s a short down 10% a Boeing door flying off down 10%

That’s short you know what I mean because like nobody’s bearish Boeing like everybody loves Boeing Boeing you know commercial airliners Apache helicopters Chinooks you know it’s the American industrial dream right there you know and next thing you know it’s 20% off the highs looking like it might get zeroed

Out you know so it’s just like you know reaction to that stuff is is is really really important to watch in terms of if you’re hunting volatility man you know when the sentiment bubble gets you know about to burst and it finally bursts things fly out of it so as a Trader you

Really really got to be dialed in and and know what that’s all about and what’s going on and yeah man the uranium stuff man it’s starting to look like it’s starting to look like the laser eyes in crypto at 70k you know so yeah ites yeah and I mean like I’m I’m

Probably I’m I’m overweight uranium by anybody’s uh stretch the imagination I’m long-term investor so I’m actually hoping for the biggest correction possible at this point in time because I think over the next several years the thesis is going to play out prices will be higher two three years from now than

They are right now um and I looked I’m I’m hoping for a correction I’m kind of like the opposite of a lot of the the lunatics on on Twitter who who literally get despondent and dejected I’m like no let’s go let’s go back down again great

I know what you mean I know what you mean but I got I tell you and I know I 100% agree with your view you know it feels like that that you know it feels like a frontier sector again which is kind of fun you know like it was you

Know it blew up several years ago we know all about that and then went to zero and was literally left for dead so it’s always fun to trade a sector that is being rebirthed out of the Grave right like just like Bitcoin was left for dead at 17K nobody cared anymore

Everybody stopped looking at coinbase on Saturday morning and texting me while I was online to get bagels that Bitcoin is rallying and it’s like oh that’s got to stop you know and so it lived through that left for dead and cut came alive again and with huge percentage returns

So that’s the thing but I my opinion now like as things go parabolic I turn seller I like you asked me what I am now I am a bullish seller of uranium right like I’m looking for the next I’m looking for some ridiculous bullish headline where Sprout physical trust

Gaps open 10% to a new high and and then it’ll be one of those things where like you know there’s no solution for high prices like high prices and all of a sudden somebody will come up with some uranium and you won’t even know where it’s going to come from because you

Don’t see any being you know produced or whatever but there will be a headline and somebody will’ll say oh that’s where all the r uranium is going to come from at least for now and things will come back to earth and then we’ll get that correction that you say but I want Jesse

I have a I have pressure on myself to make a sale so that I can really dig my heels in on that sell off that you’re talking about because I see it going like this and back down and then really getting on its feet again too you know

With a little bit more corporate interest and an Institutional interest behind it but um I’m kind of just demanding myself that I make a good sale so that I can really dig in on the dip I would like to get your thoughts on Silver here as well um because in this

Sense of sentiment because you were touching on that earlier like I get hate in my comment section whenever I talk about silver people are just it seems like everybody’s ready to throw in the towel it’s a manipulated Market silver doesn’t do anything it’s going to be

Around the $25 10 years from now etc etc I mean you name it I’ve heard the comment about it I’m wondering what you think about silver right here do you think this low sentiment could present an opportunity sure it could but I don’t very I put it this way I feel like the

Silver market is really tough because there is a small Cadre I’ll call it of people that are convinced beyond the shadow of a doubt that it is the most manipulated Market of all time right the London bullion story like this JP Morgan doesn’t have enough silver to you know all this stuff

Has been flying around for 30 years since I’ve been paying attention right so I have this long history of watching the silver story arc you know F from beginning when I was on the flooor of the exchanges and there was a guy named Don Nelson that was like you know back

In the 90s who was like 80 years old then was walking around with silver and gold coins that he couldn’t give away for5 and $200 or 250 or whatever they were and literally you would like take a stack of them off the guy just to you

Know be like Don I’ll take some silver coins and go ahead have a nice day you know just to get rid of the guy um and that was silver at $5 so I saw that and all the excitement and saw the rally to 40 etc etc when gold went to to uh you

Know 2000 and in 2019 and we haven’t seen the light of day since then and that’s why I’ve kind of been just hands off it in because I’ve seen so many people get slaughtered just really with the full buy in for silver and they never sell like silver

Goes from 20 to 40 that’s not a sale for them you know that that that those are the guys that are like oh no no now I’m really clutching my coins and we’re you know going for the ride to 100 and it’s like I don’t have that kind of mentality right

So as far as silver you know unless silver for me gets on a horse and starts trending to where my my spreadsheet says wellow Silver’s up seven months in a row that’s something right like I we haven’t seen that I don’t think we’re going to see that like until that happens and

It’s a chart where I can put it on my screen and see it go from the bottom left to the top right with a little very little Interruption I I’m going to tell you that silver is just going to do what going to do and I I don’t think it’s a

Bad place to chase down risk I think it’s actually an okay place to you know to have an allocation if you’re a family office and you know alongside a precious metal allocation to have some physical silver for sure um but that’s really the only way that I’m looking at it right

Now I kind of have a noise cancellation policy I still get DMS from the guys saying hey look this bullion isn’t lining up I think there’s a real shortage I think they’re hiding it but soon as you start telling me that I’m turned off right like I I I can only

Take the markets at face value otherwise I can’t trade them and if you’re telling me there’s a boogeyman behind the curtain I have no interest you know what I mean I really just don’t have any interest and so I I know there may be a boogeyman there but that’s okay that

Just means I’m not going to trade that thing I I generally yeah you know what I mean like I don’t trade Securities with lock nest monsters in them you know I just don’t like to be in those I just like to have something being kind of transparent the oil Market is generally

Very clear and transparent to me I like trading oil so that’s kind of where I am yeah that’s a perfect segue I hope that answers the silver question yeah oh yeah be beyond a shadow of a doubt and um I I did want to segue into fossil fuels here

Oil as well as natural gas and coal perhaps one of the most obscure and hated Commodities out there are is there any opportunity you’re currently seeing in any of those three Commodities and if so how do you personally approach those sectors I think right now well put it

This way yeah I I have a view on on all three you know coal the Le the least sharp view I would say in Coal but I do think like you know just as just as we’re trying to push towards electric vehicles the US is hitting record crude

Oil production right um it’s kind of the same way um wait what was the first vehicle we were talking about um oil natural gas and coal oh and coal sorry it’s kind of the same way you know the the coal miners are surviving and coal production is fine and where

There’s a huge demand for coal like that that sector I I believe in having like in long-term allocation and like I we have our family office clients in couple coal names that I think are good for long-term holds I like the trends I’m I’m okay with the you know little bit of

Volatility that they have and I think they’re good stocks to be in in terms of the other two um natural gas Widowmaker for real to me and and I still don’t I I you know it’s this is another one Jesse that I’ve seen go from 2 to 12 like

Three or four times in my life you know I’ve participated in some of that you know over the years and I find it really really difficult to make money in that commodity I’m not saying it’s impossible sometimes it goes really well you know where it’s like you know the shortages

Line up and the price no then you get the weather and the price goes up and you can get in and out um at the moment it seems like there’s plenty of natural gas around at the moment it seems like it’s totally weather uh driven the price

Action and so since I don’t know how to trade weather I kind of stay out of that right and I’m sure there’s some you know investing in swanie and things like that and some of the other big names the big producers I’m sure can turn out to be

You know great trades I’m kind of just in them via being long the energy sectors though you know I’m not I’m not like looking for a natural gas stock to explode out of the blue um and then what was the third uh commodity we just talked about natural

Gas coal oil oil oil oil is a good one right oil is the forbidden fruit trade right now right and I’ll explain that that’s where we just saw oil the beginning of the Biden Administration once they spilled the spr we just saw a back and forth between like

7075 you know for a good year two years in the middle of the Biden Administration it was kind of Saudi Arabia versus the Biden spr sale versus Saudi Arabia output Cuts right that kept the market very balanced in the middle of 70s and then we got the

Big Saudi push right the big Saudi push ran right into the hamasa tax and the Peak at $95 just um towards the end of I guess October and straight down from there right back to the bottom of that range where we were trading in the middle of the Biden Administration right

So now we’re back to the bottom $70 and to a commodity Trader that’s that’s the forbidden fruit trade that’s the that’s the commodity saying go ahead and buy some at the bottom of the range here meanwhile if you look at the chart the trend down from the top has shown no

Sign of slowing no sign of slowing stopping or even redirecting at all and next thing you know you’re like yeah let’s buy some 70s at the bottom of the range at 55 like that scenario would not Shock Me Right Now now do I think that we’re lined up to have oil collapse like

Because of like weakening demand or over Supply I don’t like neither of those scenarios sound likely to me that’s why I don’t have the trade on but it may be a scenario where under $70 you know it starts looking juicy where the next $10 seems obvious you know and it’s like

Well we ain’t going back to 80 right now because this just happened or something like that but the one thing that’s very obvious that I was just typing into my slack channel the oil Market is is pricing any geopolitical conflict flat to a NHL hockey game like it’s pricing global global geopolitical

Risk at literally zero so you know you go on Twitter and you say the Biden administration’s leading us to World War II and you look at the screen and the screen’s going screen looks like peace and prosperity like I I hate to tell you you know what I mean but it doesn’t show

Anything about you know warmongering or whatever you want to call it I understand they ships here there ships there but the commodity Market doesn’t say it and the bond market doesn’t say it at all either right the bond Mark Bond Market’s stable but there is no

Flight to safety kind of a move on the screen where we’re up four five six seven days in a row because there are bombs going off we’ve seen what that looks like we know what that looks like this ain’t it so you know it’s very you

Know it’s kind of treacherous to me to want to buy into Commodities in any way when the market not me is deciding that we’re going into this kind of deflationary gnarl uh you know we don’t know what to expect we’re not getting a recession we don’t know but Commodities are offered we’ll

Tell you that rates they’re going down it looks like that this is the tech is the only game in town game and we’ve seen this before too so you really got to kind of balance what the market is giv you and kind of listen to the

Signals right now but I it’s really hard for me to to pick a commodity and say yeah I’m going after that one from the long side that looks good aside from like gold looking pretty good still to me you know gold is doing the things

That it needs to do for the Bulls you know the Bulls were just on their backs there with that big pullback from the highs we made an all-time high and then right back into the old range that’s dangerous right that’s technically dangerous and what gold just did was

Hold the moving averages like a rock and then show that it can put a large magnitude move away from moving averages to the upside so that was key and and for me that was kind of gold saying like gold is okay after that pull back from the high so that’s the only commodity

That I have a kind of circle on right now Jesse and I don’t have like huge aspirations for it like I don’t think it’s going to three or 4,000 anytime quickly but it feels like it can trade to 2500 in orderly fashion and I’m okay

Being in it for that slow move if that’s what happens well thank you so much for joining us today Tony it’s been an incredible conversation I always love hearing about people’s different strategies when it comes to trading and investing so you’ve provided a ton of insight for those who want to learn more

Uh where can they find the morning Navigator what is that all about yeah sure the morning Ator is um my newsletter that I write three days a week that I try to be a very quick and easy conversation about where Traders should look in the morning and it’s

Something that I try to I have a lot of pride in putting together where I I I sort of need it to be well written every day with a couple of charts that are semi-interesting at the very least um and then I have a p&l view Matrix that I

Run where I you know kind of guide newsletter readers into positions with you know the time and and kind of time stamp of when I would want to get in them where my risk is when I would want to get out what the target is um so

People are big fans of that of the view Matrix we’ve had a good couple of years knock on wood and then I have a study break section which is just a uh human interest section essentially that people also like so you can get find my newsletter on my website tgro dcom under

The product section uh you can find me at Twitter at TG macro and any of your uh TG macro TG MAAC and any of your clients can feel free to email me or any of your listeners can email me at Tony tgro dcom if you have any questions

About the newsletter um but it is trying you know generally is a market publication for Traders that is trying to identify you know three to five high conviction ideas a month I think is fair to say so I think we covered pretty much oh and also you can sign up for my

Substack at Navigator TV which is tgro Dos substack do.com it’s called Navigator TV and I do uh weekly Recaps of the markets on video uh there and it’s totally free and uh people like that as well we’ve got about 4,000 subscribers right now but it’s growing a

Little bit lately so people are enjoying those Recaps and that’s another place you could find me awesome I’ll put links to all of that in the description below for people who want to check it out thank you once again Tony for coming on and sharing all your knowledge with the

Audience H I’m honored to be considered and thank you so much for having the conversation with me Jesse that was awesome and thank you for joining us today as a reminder this episode is sponsored by moneymetals.com use coupon code Jesse day to get a $10 discount on

Your first purchase link is in the description below and I’ll see you guys in the next episode commodity culture is a series on Commodities and natural resources if you would like to see more be sure to subscribe and hit the Bell notification so you’re always up to date with the latest episodes