In this insightful video, Raoul Pal delves into the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, revealing unprecedented trends and forecasts. Discover the staggering growth of active crypto wallets, even amidst a bear market, and how this indicates the fastest technology adoption ever seen, surpassing even the internet and mobile phones. Pal also discusses the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” cycle, signifying a phase of widespread and simultaneous crypto adoption and innovation. The video further explores the unique influence of macroeconomic cycles on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, highlighting the impact of global policies and events on crypto dynamics. Finally, Raoul offers predictions for future growth and adoption, driven by new ETFs, blockchain integration of real-world assets, and expanding NFT use cases. Join us on Unscripted Crypto for an unparalleled analysis of these emerging trends that are reshaping the financial landscape. Subscribe for more exclusive insights into the evolving world of digital currencies.
Raoul Pal is a co-founder of Real Vision, a financial media company offering in-depth video interviews and research publications from the world’s best investors. Prior to starting Real Vision, Raoul ran a successful global macro hedge fund.
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Crypto.com have their own very detailed analysis of the number of active wallets of they they’ve got 516 million kind of adds up if you look at coinbase users there’s 110 million coinbase accounts not all of them are active obviously right now there’s about 10 million active binance at about 150 million you
Know then there’s a whole bunch in India there’s a whole bunch of stuff so it’s about 500 million people wallets however we want to look at it right so that’s a reasonable amount and it’s been growing at 100% a year even in 2022 which was a bare Market the number of active wallets
Grew 42% so it’s growing incredibly fast I’ve said for a long time it was the fastest adoption of any technology the world’s ever seen faster than the internet faster than mobile phone faster than the television but obviously AI just overtook that it got zero to 100
Million in five weeks but still the pace of adoption is is ridiculously big so even if we extrapolate out the trend in a year’s time we’re at billion maybe it’s maybe the trend slows maybe it’s 750 Million by the end of 2024 and then you know you very soon get
To very large numbers two three four billion people which is kind of when you get a more saturated market so we are still early but we’re not super early you know and I I would suggest that the cycle that lies ahead that we’ve started is probably the cycle I refer to as the
Everything everywhere all at once cycle where we do see adoption from every Angle in our recent discussion with rul pal we focused on the growth of active crypto wallets even amidst the bare Market the latest data from 2024 reveals A continuing Trend in the global crypto wallet Market with an estimated value significantly higher than in previous years the market is experiencing robust
Growth driven by the increasing adoption of digital currency the rise of hot wallets for their user friendliness and the growing interest in cold wallets for enhanced security especially among institutional and high- net worth investors are notable Trends this growth is not just limited to wallet numbers we’re also observing a
Diversification in the types of wallets being used Android continues to dominate the market but iOS is gaining ground due to its perceived security advantages this indicates a maturing Market that caters to different user preferences and needs with this expanded insight into the crypto wallet Market let’s delve deeper into how global economic Cycles
Impact the crypto world if you’re eager to understand the future of Finance don’t forget to subscribe and give us a like Bitcoin cycle is the macro cycle don’t forget all assets are going up and down in this four-year cycle as is the economy as our interest rates it’s all
Due to 2008 and resetting interest rates back to zero all the government major governments around the world they then issued their debt in this three to fiveyear sector so let’s call it four years on average and this debt refinancing cycle is the cycle that drives Bitcoin all crypto all assets
It’s also the presidential cycle they’re all the same thing right now right this is this super correlated World So within it the first part what I call macro spring which is what we’ve been in the early part of a bull market when inflation is starting to fall growth is
Still falling but starting to try and stabilize somewhere normally that’s when Bitcoin outperforms it’s like in the beginning of a bond market rally it’s treasuries that outperform then as people get confidence and more liquidity comes in the system they start taking more risk and it goes further out the
Risk curve and that’s when the alts start performing so we’re transitioning currently from macro crypto spring to macro crypto summer so that’s what’s known as old season it starts with the high quality tokens for first and then at the end of it in 2025 it’s kind of everything goes up ridiculously we’re
Going into election year you brought up the the presidential election I believe and I want to know what your thoughts are I believe that a Administration that’s the incumbit administration where we’ve witnessed interest rates you know be increased in in a very you know some people’s opinion violent manner upward
That we’re going to see lower rates especially before the summer before the election in an election year and when you and and more liquidity coming into the market and when you add all those things up you get your 60% is that is that where you were headed or am I
Misstating it yeah so the regular macro cycle is exactly as you’re saying governments want to bribe voters so they give out as many candies as possible and that’s stimulus the central bank is involved in this because it has to help refin the government Finance debt so they do do
Want to get interest rates lower they’re talking a harder game now I think they want inflation to undershoot because then that gives them the cover to use the balance sheet to print money do all of the things that they do and that’s fine and that would be a normal crypto
Cycle we’ve seen that pretty much every time we get into the harving year but we are seeing some bigger Dynamics here which is we could see a huge amount of capital coming in because of the ETF and because of a lot of people are building on real world assets
You know we’re seeing money transmission mechanism stuff being done we’re seeing you know new use cases of nfts they were they were new for the last cycle you know what are we going to use them for when salana can can mint a million nfts for 100 bucks well you can use it for
Ticketing you can do all sorts of things we can’t yet imagine and we’ve got the cbdcs are going to be rolled out in some places within this cycle which is again using the underlying chain and the ongoing growth of stable coins and we’re seeing brands come into the space to use
Kind of web 3 as a way forward for new business models which is why I call it the everything everywhere all at once which m means that we could have Collective Madness where kind of more like the 2017 cycle right it just goes crazy now either I expected the same
Kind of finish of the 2021 cycle I got that spectacularly wrong but maybe we get it this time around its bare Market was the same as all the other bare markets so even though we went through this extraordinary macro situation with this ridiculous inflation and huge as
You said violent rate Rises Bitcoin went down 76% it’s kind of yeah kind of does that every time you know and so I think just what happens is as liquidity comes out of the system liquidity comes out of cryptocurrencies as it does out of Emerging Markets as it does out of
Commodities as it does out of all of these things when liquidity comes back it comes back but each draw down from every bare Market in Bitcoin is less than the last it’s like eth last time around was first time around was 97 and a half% down W second time 80% third
Time probably 70% you know salana first cycle down 98 and a half% next cycle if it you know if it does well and thrives it will be 80% right and Bitcoin will be less the next time around building on our discussion with r pal we dive into how the Bitcoin
Cycle correlates with broader economic patterns let’s also consider the key trends shaping the crypto landscape in 2024 a positive shift is expected with increased institutional demand and growing Bitcoin adoption set to drive Innovation key trends include corporate involvement Bitcoin Centric developments and scalability solutions such as Roll-Ups offering cost-effective and
Faster transactions on blockchain networks the global economic landscape including shifts in interest rates and government policies is directly impacting the crypto Market market for instance the anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected to be a major business driver in 2024 offering diverse investment opportunities and further integrating Bitcoin into the
Mainstream Financial system for crypto investors this represents a period of exciting opportunities the integration of blockchain across Industries the growth of decentralized infrastructure and the increasing role of institutional investors are creating new avenues for Innovation you know um Brad garlinghouse CEO of Ripple famously said about two
Three years ago uh that 99% of the tokens out there were going to zero you know I think there was 20,000 and if that’s true that would leave a couple hundred if if you go with the 1% of 20,000 let me ask you do you do you agree with that sentiment that
99% out there are so yeah how how to think about this is for eternity retail investors have been shut out of venture capital which is generated ated huge returns this is basically tokenized venture capital and so the VC game is about 80% of everything goes to zero um
18% does okay and 1% knocks it out of the park it’s exactly the same new businesses die when they don’t get traction and that’s okay it’s you know it’s this perfect pure capitalist cycle that goes on in crypto yeah there’s a bunch of scams and there’s a bunch of
Bad behavior but there is in all businesses and it’s not just in crypto do you think since we’re gonna talk about the United States that the incumbents have seen you can’t kill it so let’s crush it so maybe you know the the Larry Finks and the black rocks they
Come in and they get a bigger piece or do you think I’m just got the tinfoil hat on there I think there’s multiple attack vectors going on here one is government because government has a monopoly on money and violence and you know when when you are the world’s
Reserve currency you’re very nervous of making a wrong move right we’ve seen this repeated I’ve written about this on Twitter after the US left the gold standard they tried to stop Capital flight had Capital controls so the UK started the FX Market which is the largest market the world has ever seen
Because you know South Africa wants to trade with the UK and dollars come in the middle and we’re like well we need we need an fx Market to trade because we’re not using gold anymore then it happened with the euro dollar market because the US Banks were not
Allowed to lend internationally so the UK started the euro dollar market became the largest market the world has ever seen happened again with derivatives they wanted to protect the CME and the cbot so they like we’re not going to let the banks have regulatory cap um availability for OTC
Derivatives so London started the OTC derivative Market the swap Market was first became a$ 1.4 quadrillion dollar market so we’ve got a history of the United States being cautious around these things and eventually catching up so that’s what I think Liz Warren is there’s some nervousness around that
There then is just votes right the world is pretty polarized right now and one of the ways this polarizes people is young people vote for crypto so they’re much High you know 30% of Millennials will own crypto of the Baby Boomers much less Liz Warren is a poster child for the
Baby Boomers right so she’s trying to get votes which is the We Fear change which is older people who like I’m I know what I know and I like what I like so I think it’s it’s political and it’s also out of fear over control control
Over money and the US has control over money and and it can sense that something’s changing even though stable coins have actually made it more dollarized right the banks from as far as I’m aware forget what Jamie Diamond says because he’s got a monopoly basically of banking but all of the
Banks know that blockchain technology is solution every one of them and they’re all working on it so they’re not really fighting us at all they’re just scared of Liz Warren and gendler right that’s the real problem here is they can’t move forwards you know do you think Goldman wants an OTC trading desk
For crypto of course it does but it’s still worried still worried about what it can do the asset management firms haven’t been able to create products because they don’t know who’s going to get sued and so that’s the issue here is for some reason Liz Warren has been
Given control over the financial system by Biden and gendler is her puppet each bare Market in bitcoin’s history has been less severe than the last signaling the growing maturity of the crypto Market the recent bare Market demonstrated resilience in specific cryptocurrencies with less severe downturns than previous Cycles this
Suggests a growing maturity and stability in the crypto ecosystem supported by the increasing use of cryptocurrency as a long-term store of value looking towards the future it’s clear that the crypto world is more than just currencies it’s a technological Revolution reshaping our digital landscape from Finance to Art blockchain
Is Paving the way for innovative solutions if you found this analysis helpful don’t forget to subscribe and hit the like button
1 Comment
This needs to be added to the national archives of awesome content.