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Everybody Welcome to the no shill Zone we are back how you doing Ben pretty good how about you g good man very good so so let’s jump right back into it right so we got a a Bitcoin that is basically 50k in fact it looks like we

Hit it to the penny on my uh bitstamp chart we can take a look at obviously what it’s doing on the coinbase one as well here let’s bring that up but I I guess the question is are do you expect us to see a breakout here or is this

Going to be a stall out and reversal you know my my views on the market have essentially been that the liquidity from all the altcoins essentially it has to flow back to bitcoin well I guess nothing has to happen right but the idea is that Bitcoin will continue to sort of chop

The altcoin market up until it has finally broken the altcoin market down and look the altcoin market has held up against Bitcoin longer this cycle than it did last cycle um there’s no doubt about it um but yeah I mean you have the spot ETF flows right going into Bitcoin

You also just have the regular people who sort of the regular DCA that that get into it but you know when you look at at days like today and you see Bitcoin pushing 50k and you go look at all Bitcoin pairs look at them right they’re all just they’re mostly just

Bleeding back to bitcoin and that I think is ultimately what what needs to happen is I think Bitcoin will continue this I mean I don’t know if it’s going to get rejected off 50k or not on the first try but my guess is that it will

Continue to try until we finally see you know eth Bitcoin break down until we finally see all Bitcoin pairs break down do you have do you have any idea like what would you say is the reasoning behind the altcoins holding up better is it is it the risk on in atmosphere is it

The liquidity that’s you know really we’ve seen M2 start to uptick again uh we’ve seen the the debt the credit card debt which is basically people consuming and more liquidity in the system is it all kind of tied together yeah I guess so I mean I I think there is a lot more

Liquidity this cycle uh than there was last cycle but in in other ways you could view the market it really isn’t that different in in some regards and and here’s a great example one that that kind of implies that it actually isn’t that different like you know the eth

Bitcoin chart the monthly candles if you were to actually just look at at how long it has taken eth Bitcoin let’s say let’s say take it from from this first high right here until it finally broke down in June of 2019 or really I guess

It was July of 2019 it was about 25 months right we’re currently on around 26 months right so it’s really in that view it’s not that different different right but it can certainly feel that way I I think one of the reasons it feels that way is because in this cycle over

Here the second Peak for eth Bitcoin was basically right when Bitcoin was putting in its all-time high but the second Peak for eth Bitcoin in this past cycle it was you know well into the bare market right and you’re talking about it was near the end it was near the merge the

End of 2022 so that could be one reason why the perception of it of it is is different this time but I do think that big coin will continue to sort of make these aggressive moves until we see that that Bitcoin dominance break out right we’ve been following this forever um and

It’s back near the range highs I mean again last cycle we saw Bitcoin go through this exact same type of rally until the until the Bitcoin dominance Street trades to the 0.5 FIB retracement which is all the way up at 56% and you know I know I know some

People look at the Bitcoin chart and they would like a larger correction um we we’ve only had you know we’ve had four 20% Corrections at this point basically since 2023 started um and every single one of them has been about 20% right very similar types of moves

Last cycle you know QT late business cycle the problem is you know once the once the 30% correction came during that during that move it actually meant that there was a longer you know I I I think the idea is right there’s a lot of people that want to quote unquote buy

The dip they only get 20 they only get these shallow dips right they only get 20% dips so by the time you maybe get a 30% dip and people go in to buy it it might you know it might do some type of 2019 action where it then goes into a

Downtrend for you know half a year or something before continuing the overall move what what do you think Gareth I mean what is 50k is is it gonna be a formidable Milestone or can Bitcoin get through it yeah so I think a lot has to

Do for me is is just watching the the liquidity in the system and the stock market right so so you know it’s there the fact that the S&P is just hitting new new highs continually right so so today there’s no volume in the market we’re in a hangover Day from the Super

Bowl uh volume again in the S&P is is probably on Pace to be the lightest in the last year um so when you kind of combine that and you look at just the grind up in the market the the insanity which is like an Nvidia chart that just

Continues to to Rally higher um it’s a risk on environment I mean it just is and so that’s going to money flow is eventually going to say okay well what else is risk on what should be running during this period and that’s Bitcoin and really alt to some extent I do think

It’s kind of interesting that you have a risk on environment should which should be really positive for alt but we’re not seeing necessarily new highs versus Bitcoin has just made a new high I think the last high on the spot news was 49,000 and here we’re hitting 50,000 so

So you do see a little bit more relative strength in in something like Bitcoin which is probably ETF you know getting more money flow in there but um but yeah it’s an incredible Market en environment here where liquidity is is just flowing I mean risk people willing to take risk

Um even in spite of interest rates still being relatively good I mean you could still find 5% on a you know a CD right now for a short-term CD which historically is not too bad especially over the last 20 years um but people are still choosing to be in the stock market

Because that’s where these insane gains are right well I mean it’s as far as it goes with altcoins I mean look as long as Bitcoin goes up the altcoin market can you know can can get pulled up higher right I mean Bitcoin sort of lifts those up my you know sort of the

Argument that that I’ve made before is tracking Bitcoin and and Bitcoin dominance is like yeah like altcoins can go up for sure if Bitcoin goes up the only reason altcoins are going to go up well collectively there’s always a few that you could you know find some exceptions but collectively they would

Go up only after Bitcoin does right so you you know if you want to have the strongest horse it would make sense to have you know keep a crypto portfolio I think heavier Bitcoin than heavier altcoins and until we get back to looser monetary policy G you know a few weeks

Ago I think when 2024 started um you mentioned that the S&P would likely rally uh to 5,000 here at the early part of the year but now that we are at 5,000 what like what comes next I mean you know we’ve already we’ve hit that round

Number do you think it can just extend these gains um as as I mean crypto is not really crypto hasn’t slowed down yet no yeah what what are your thoughts on the so this is really really interesting is that is that so you look at this

Chart and and I mean the vertical nature of the S&P is incredible just I mean to just put this in perspective you know you look at the last time so we’ve had 14 weeks out of 15 have been green on the S&P 500 I think there’s been two

Other times in history where that’s happened it was 1957 and I think 1927 so it shows you how rare it is to have such a kind of continual grind up in the market um with the S&P higher today I think one of the keys that I I was

Shocked by over the weekend is a stat that says that with the S&P at new all-time highs 39% of the S&P stocks are below their 50 moving average so think about what that’s saying that’s saying that essentially you you’ve just under half of the S&P stocks are underneath

Their 50 moving average we’re not talking the 20 moving average we’re talking the 50 which is even harder to be below um and more bearish for those stocks and and interestingly enough at the start of the Year 91% of stocks in the S&P were above their 50 so even

Though the S&P is going higher almost daily and weekly there’s been this underlying degradation in what is essentially the underlying fundamentals of it right and so you know in layman’s terms it’s basically telling us that the rally is being led by less and less names within the S&P and the and it

Really is it should be a warning sign so yes could we go a little bit higher but at some point if that Trend continues it’s a trend that is unsustainable well again I mean it’s the same thing we saw in crypto right like total market cap of crypto is going up because bitcoin’s

Going up right it’s not it’s not because the altcoins have you know gone back to where they were a few weeks ago it’s because Bitcoin is now pushing new new yearly highs and it is putting a new year this is the um this is the chart

You were just talking about gett this is the uh the S&P 500 overlaid with the number of stocks I guess with the percentage of stocks in it that are above their 50-day SMA and so yeah I mean you’re right like the the S&P continues to climb higher um thanks to

You know a few of the larger market cap names it’s actually a I think that’s one of the reasons why a lot of hedge funds struggle to outperform the S&P is because there are a lot of examples in history where only a few stocks are responsible for a large number you know

A large percentage of the gains and it’s hard to it can be hard to sort of pick those stocks out whereas the S&P collectively like the index it’ll have it in there and so you sort of allowing those few stocks to lift it higher but

You’re right I mean yeah you can look at it the percentage of stocks above their 50-day SMA and the stock market has basically been trending down and I think I think if you look historically look at how rare that is for that to happen I

Mean you know it’s it’s pretty I I me looking at other scenarios where you’ve seen that Divergence essentially the crocodile uh you know Jaws starting to kind of open here with that Divergence and eventually we know what the outcome is if you look historically it snaps

Back shut with either you know the lower Bunch jumping up but then the the S&P usually coming back down yeah but again I mean I I think it’s important to remember that those Trends can take months to out if not longer I mean that’s the whole thing with the business

Cycle right like the business cycle can take years to play out you know I think it’s easy for us to look at a chart and look at like the 70s and see all the you know all the rate hiking cycles and rate cutting cycles and see the S&P but you

Know each of those Cycles took years to play out and I mean you have to imagine a lot of emotion was tied into into every single one of those moves back then yeah 100% I I couldn’t agree more and so yeah it is a remarkable market

Right now I think I think you know you you look at risk assets and then and then you have gold right on the other side of the coin which is you know basically just um staying stationary at this point right and so let me bring up

My gold chart here and we can look at talk a little bit about that gold today is lower and we’re actually seeing a little bit of a breakdown below this short-term trend line right here which again I don’t think there’s a lot of downside on gold here I think gold again

Has shown that it’s resilient and staying near these all-time highs even in spite of a risk on atmosphere and for everyone out there watching remember that when you get the markets hitting new all-time highs usually gold is selling off because no one wants to be

In Gold why would you be in Gold when you could be in stocks but the mere fact that gold has held up this well in this bull market for the last year year and a half is is a is a testament to to people still accumulating including central

Banks but but short term you are seeing a little breakdown here um the other thing to just point out I wanted to just show you guys is take a look at the vix today so you have a stock market that’s floating up but you’re actually seeing

The vix pop today a little little bit and then there’s been this kind of General trend on the vix that has been making higher low a higher highs and high higher lows as well and historically I think this might have been the last time we kind of saw that

Over here you do tend to get Pops in that period um from that from that movement so so just something to keep in mind you know again I think you you say it perfectly when you have to say that there’s the timing is the hardest thing

Right you you can see that the storm clouds are are showing but you don’t know is it next week next month or next year basically right yeah I mean as far as the S&P goes I’m pretty I’m pretty much a fairly boring investor I just sort of DCA into some low expense ratio

Index funds when you know like on on pullbacks and when like Risk levels are low like back in in October when you know Yellen issued shorter duration than the market was expecting we had you know we basically had the the market essentially recognizing that the FED had

Hit the terminal rate right of 5 and a half% and you had favorable seasonality in Q4 of the pre-election year that was a you know that was time for me to say all right well we probably will see stocks rally for a while and I I mean I

I think it’s hard to know exactly when it’s going to stop a lot of times after fed pauses the stock market can rally 20 25% and it’s not like that’s actually the median I think return on stocks after a Fed after a Fed Paul so uh and

And by the way as far as gold goes um we’re we’re still I you know if you look at at at least last cycle and and prior cycle a lot of times the time when gold really takes off is after QE returns right and I I think it’s because like why QE

Returns right like if QE is returning because the economy is weak then people are going to go risk off and pile into into riskof assets yeah and I mean you can see 2019 essentially is what happened right like QE you rates started to be cut and that’s where gold really

Started to go higher yeah yeah and then and then secondarily yeah we saw we basically saw that lasting into covid right you know the move that ended with the pop that kind of you know in late 2020 gold topped out but that was when the Fed was going gang busters in terms

Of you know printing money and flooding the system with liquidity essentially quantitative easing so no that’s a great Point what are your thoughts on like I mean you know obviously looking at Bitcoin itself but but like ethereum like how how is your Viewpoint you like

There’s been a lot of talk that with a potential spot ETF later this year maybe the ethereum is the place to be for the next big bull run for ethereum um you know do you have any viewpoints on that well yeah I mean look my view on on eth

Is that um it can go higher so long as Bitcoin does but I I think that Bitcoin will continue to sort of rule the roots I I think Bitcoin is King and I don’t think ethereum is going to take it away if you remember at the spot ETF launch

Right you know following the spot ETF launch of of of Bitcoin a lot of money flowed into eth right I mean if we remember you know I mean look at this eth Bitcoin rally right it rallied up 17 % in a single week and it’s effectively

Given back all of those gains at this point it has and yes I I agree like the spot ETF for ethereum is likely long-term bullish for e but you have the having before you know between now and then so if if the market really does continue to remain narrative driven

Which I mean you could argue that it will be then I I you know while it’s possible that that eth gets a relative move against Bitcoin for sure you know sometime when that launches or going into the launch I still have to think well we have the having between now and

Then and I I think people are going to be more focused on that and I mean you can see that it I mean it’s bleeding back down to the range lows and by the way you know last cycle eth Bitcoin finally broke support right it finally broke support right as the First Rate

Cut arrived and so I I I think that yes it’s possible that eth b the eth Bitcoin ratio bounces around in this level it’s not like it has to immediately fall but I still think the ultimate outcome is for it to break down around the time of

The First Rate cut who knows when that’s going to be as far as ethusd um you know it’s kind of eerily similar to to again the last cycle almost an order of magnitude higher in fact right like if you look at at where ethusd bottomed out over here it was around you know

8590 right here is about $800 $900 um you know this rally over here essentially lasted at least on on weekly closes up to around 300 with a wick to you know 350 or so and I mean look ethereum is already at 2500 it already made a move to 2700 if Bitcoin stays

Risk on for you know a few more weeks or a few more months of course it can lift ethereum higher it’s just you know does does ethereum go up in a durable fashion relative to bitcoin or not and my guess is that it doesn’t my guess is that it

Underperforms Bitcoin like my guess is that we look back on this period a year from now while there will have been some bounces I’m still guessing it eventually breaks durably below 049 and and likely spends a year or so um below 049 before likely breaking back up to the upside I

Don’t know sometime in in you know 2025 or or something what what’s your view on eth I mean are you are you in the camp that it’s going to outperform bitcoin or or do you still think Bitcoin or or what’s your views on on ethusd yeah so

So again you know I think one of the things for me at least is I I’ve been staying much more shorter term in terms of levels um so so so for instance you see the parallel lines and there something about markets where where they stay Within These parallels is just

Absolutely remarkable but we could see here how you know you had this High here and it kind of bubbled against it finally breaking and then that became support we broke up we came back down it became support again and now E’s moved up and then you have the high line which

Is parallel to this one as well and we’ve now just crept above that so as long as we stay above this line the probabilities favor us at least moving up to like 2775 which would be the upper trend line which is again another parallel uh line

So so I would say that again as long as we stay above 2500 you favor 2775 of being hit whether or not it gets through that I think that’s as we get closer to a potential spot ETF that would be the trigger if it really is going to get a

Bid and break through there it’s got to be something different right something that makes it makes it have that power to bust through that upper trend line up here but but yeah it’s been an amazing amazing mover just in the recent days kind of following along with Bitcoin um

You know just looking at a couple of these others I can take a look at cardano for people out there I thought this was interesting you had this wedge pattern you can see again we broke above it right here and then it’s kind of been up but but again I think it’s important

To draw the the the comparison here that you know you have Bitcoin making new highs in the short term right we we hit 49 now we’re hitting 50 a month later or so um you had you have ethereum which is still underneath and then you have uh these secondary tier

Cryptos these altcoins that are still really struggling I mean they’ve broken out a lot of them but some of them haven’t I mean I was looking at inj here which to be honest this is this is actually underneath a significant resistance line right here right from

This point here to this low we broke below and it still hasn’t really gotten much of a bid to recapture that um couple others that are like that as well let me just see here what was the another one um I guess you could look at

Uh let’s take let’s take a look at Salas salana is an interesting one so salana I have this this really long-term trend line going back to October of 2023 and notice how again it just hammered on the line but didn’t break down and it just kind of led into that epic blowoff top

Right here it then came back and hit it a few times and then broke down and now look the this was support for all this period it now becomes resistance so resistance here pulls back and then right back to that level here at resistance and we’ll see what it does

Here but but it’s it’s interesting to see a lot of these things except for Bitcoin that are struggling underneath resistance points not to say they can’t break out like if if risk on stays they sure certainly can but but Bitcoin right now certainly is the leader here well I

Think a lot of times like when people are in crypto for more than just one cycle like the first cycle everyone loves altcoins second cycle you get really cautious around them like you know that they can pump but you also know that they can give back all those

Gains you know by your third cycle or so a lot of people just kind of stick with Bitcoin and maybe some some e um because it’s just that the altcoins I mean look they can give lifechanging gains I mean I I’ve definitely made a lot of money on

Altcoins in the past but if you’re looking for more of like a a slow and and sort of steady thing you want to protect the satos valuation of your portfolio you know having a large percentage of of your portfolio in Bitcoin over say altcoins I I think is

Is sort of a long-term winning strategy now if you can if you can do what you do right with where you take the sort of these shorter term trades um then you can sort of flip back and forth um but I I still think that yeah like Bitcoin and

By the way I mean like look at like Ada Bitcoin is is now back down to 1100 1100 stats and it’s kind of like the same thing as like the whole eth Bitcoin stuff right like I mean like this is a very similar move where you kind of you

Put in a low and then you put in a lower low right it’s it’s all the same stuff you then pop back up and then you you know you put in a higher low and then you sort of you get your final local blowoff top and I mean it really looks

Like a really similar type of pattern there right where it like it gets these moves adaa Bitcoin topped out last cycle April 2019 you know about three four months before fed pivoted um could it be the same thing I I I think it it is

Likely and so if that happens what I you know what I would be looking at is look to see if these are breaking down you know when it goes talking about ethereum earlier I think as long as it’s above 0.49 then the bias is for it to chase

After Bitcoin right like if as long as you’re looking at it and it’s a 0.5 handle then fine like it’s it can chase after Bitcoin but if it goes below 0.49 I I think that really would represent a a shift like a a major Dynamic a major Market shift in E and

The reason is because I mean like it it I mean look I it that’s just what happened like that’s just what happens um in in at least prior Cycles right and I don’t it’s hard to know exactly like the um sort of the mechanics behind it

Um we argue about like liquidity and and all that other stuff but often times when you know when you see at least in the last couple of Cycles when we’ve seen eth Bitcoin break down there and when we saw it break down here that was where the purple line that was where

Ethusd finally took a hit right that was after eth Bitcoin broke down so again I think things are okay so long as eth Bitcoin stays above 0.49 below 049 I think you have to wonder like has has has maybe too much liquidity been sucked out and then that represents sort of a

Turning point in the market but yeah in the short term I I definitely agree um with your views on on on those alss yeah so let’s turn our attention to we have economic data right so so every investor should be aware that we got CPI tomorrow

Uh later this week PPI um you know we know the fed the FED is kind of been choreographing second half rate cut three maybe this year the market says no we think March right now and we think five or six you know so so the question

I guess is is I mean is there a chance that we start to see an uptick in some of in the CPI data I mean what’s what’s pushing the FED is the Fed just scared of the 1970s of a repeat and that’s why they’re trying to take this cautionary

Stance I mean who can blame them right I mean you know if you look if you look at at headline inflation in the 70s the first Peak which I know it looks smaller than the current Peak but the way they calculated it back then was actually a

Lot different than it is now um but if you were to look at this first Peak we came down to around 3% and then it just re accelerated right and then we came down to to 5% and then it re accelerated so I do think we have to learn our

Lesson from the prior Cycles where you know where the S&P you know went on to put in new Highs but if you have inflation re accelerate that just means you’re gonna have to hike more right imagine imagine how terrible imagine the feeling If the Fed cut say 50 basis

Points this year and then had to raise to six and a half percent next year because they didn’t you know they didn’t go high enough I mean let’s just give it over with make sure we’re back down to 2% and as Paul said then we can go hopefully into another cycle of economic

Expansion but yeah I I think that I I think the the main risk to inflation right now is sort of the energy data because some of the base effects are no longer favorable um when comparing to a year ago but some of the other effects I

I think are still uh quite strong like in terms of bringing CPI down and one of those is housing I mean if you look at like inflation year-over-year approximation of of contributions per category um you can see that one of the main things that’s holding it up is is

Just simply housing which is yeah still you know covering most of the entire of the entire thing I mean like the green bar is housing and then the orange bar is actually the total headline inflation so housing I think will continue to come down but again I I I think and you also

Gareth you know I I also wonder they say they’re not politically motivated and I I’d like to believe that but you do have to wonder like are they going to have some Pauls um cutting rates too much the closer they get to the election and I I

Don’t know there’s some people that are sort of speculating that you know maybe they won’t maybe they won’t maybe they will I think they’ll likely cut at least a couple times this year as they’ve said but I don’t know I don’t know when it’s going to come maybe May June what do you

Think yeah I mean that’s kind of where it is right now it seems like it’s it’s May right now is what’s on the table um but but I think again like CPI data coming out and I also think the labor market right I mean the labor market

Last last note granted I mean you could argue that a lot of that was government jobs um but that’s been a consistent thing frankly um but yeah I think I think the labor market if it starts to weaken it gives them that green light to

Cut I think they’ll try to head it off and and go for that um but yeah I mean it’s it’s uh it’s interesting I part of me does think that you’ll see a reacceleration in inflation I and again I think some of this is already in the cards meaning like I’ve been reading

Articles lately about how in some states a Big Mac meal at McDonald’s is now 18 bucks I mean holy cow like insane and then I was reading about how there’s been you know push back against Taco Bell because you go eat a Taco Bell it

Used to be like you know you know three tacos for $3 kind of thing and now it’s like I mean that’s like 12 bucks or whatever and it’s is a big change and and and it’s hard to imagine at least for what the the rank and file the the

Retail consumer out there is feeling is that you know does housing I mean housing is a huge part of our our net worth as a country but also uh there’s a large portion of the country that’s that’s feeling inflation in a whole different way and you just see this

Divergence in fact one of the points I wanted to make today is that I was I I was doing a lot of research into the Great Depression and the causes of the Great Depression and it’s amazing for those of you out there I’m not going to

Get into too many details but a lot of the Sim there’s so many similarities I mean you have you know crazy changes in in in electricity you know usage where it became more common place in the 20s The Roaring 20s uh you had cars cars

Started to become a staple now a lot of people in the 20s started to get the Model T and and there things like that um and then you also had this Divergence because of this the Rockefellers and so forth the the those that could invest in the market made massive wealth while

There was a huge part of the population that that were not seeing those gains that were being affected by prices going up after World War I um and then here we are where this the same sort of things are are showcasing and so it’s not to say andless you know we talked about

This earlier it’s not to say that we’re on the verge of a of a Great Depression but I do think it’s history is something that I find fascinating because it gives so much insight into human repetition of of mistakes right things that repe over and over again um and it’s something we

Should all be aware of yeah I mean I think the FED I think they’ve had a pretty easy job so far especially after their mistake about inflation is transitory you got to hike rates you got to keep them higher for longer as long as unemployment ratees below 4% I mean

You know they don’t really need I I don’t really you know there’s not a huge need for them to be aggressive in in cutting I I think where things could become a little bit you know hazy is like what happens if you have inflation kind of reaccelerating like you

Mentioned and the unemployment rate is also starting to go up right like what ify rate yeah like what if what if the unemployment rate hits 4% but you know core CPI isn’t at their target and he said as long as it’s moving to their target they’ll cut but what if it’s

Moving away from their target you know I wonder I wonder what if it like let’s just say it stays here at 3% give or take right if it just stays here and we see a a uptick in in unemployment to like 4% like you’re saying what do they

Do because because obviously if they loosen monetary policy it probably does reinvigorate the potential for the CPI to start to climb again right and then and then and then today’s problem just becomes you know next year’s problem right you know they just sort of Kick

The Can down the road which I mean again they’re great at doing but I mean we’ll see anyways I guess we should wrap it up we’re we’re we’re basically at 30 minutes and guys if you’re not subscribed to Gareth make sure you do so link to all his socials um in the

Description below and his website uh in the money stocks make sure you guys check that out we’ll be here every Monday except when I’m not sick which or except when I’m sick which is actually quite frequent um but yeah that’s that’s all about having kids buddy we all

Experience it it’s no fun at all but yeah same thing guys make sure to follow Ben here and follow his socials it’s awesome stuff and we’ll be back hopefully next Monday assuming neither of us are sick you guys