Global oil markets should remain “comfortable” this year as new supplies satisfy demand and keep prices in check, according to the International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Fatih Birol. He spoke to Bloomberg on the sidelines of the 50th anniversary of the International Energy Agency.
Read the full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/iea-expects-comfortable-oil-markets-and-moderate-prices-in-2024
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This year, 2024, we expect oil demand growth to be significantly weaker than last year, 2023 increase, and we expect about 1.2 1.3 million barrels per day, mainly as a result of the slowing down of the economic growth China but elsewhere, and also electrification of the transportation system, more electric
Cars coming through in the future. This is on the demand side. On the supply side, the growth coming from Americas, namely U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana. This growth to output altogether is more than enough to meet the global oil demand growth.
So in the absence of major geopolitical turmoil or major extreme weather events, we would expect a rather a comfortable oil market and comfortable moderate price evolution throughout 2024. Okay. Moderate price evolution throughout 2024, because that supply is that, as you say, from the Americas. But demand is going to be softer.
And of course you make that that key caveat around geopolitical risks. Does that take then give us some comfort when it comes to the question of inflation? Fatih, Do you think that we are past the big concern, at least around the resurgence of inflation when it comes to
The energy component in the energy mix in that inflation story? So at least what I can say, if again, if there are no geopolitical escalation in Middle East, we are seeing a tension growing and then again reducing. And if we don’t see extreme weather
Events in North America and elsewhere, I would say that the oil price to remain at around current levels would add inflation and not to further increase. So as such would be a good news for the global economy, especially in the emerging countries. Fatih, It’s Kriti Gupta in London, opaque.
Plus has time and time again talked about physical tightness in this oil market. And it’s not physical tightness that helps them kind of regulate some of some of the oil prices to perhaps a lot of the consuming economies. Kind of did demise to me, to be completely honest.
Talk to us a little bit about whether the United States, an extra supply that you touted distorts the oil picture. Are you concerned at all about oversupply from the U.S.? No, I think the growth coming from the United States is that for the oil markets, because, as I said, the demand
Is weaker than last year, but still significant, 1.2, 1.3 million barrels per day. And the U.S. bringing a significant amount of oil is a very good news for the consumers, for the global economy, for inflation, is as well as coming from Canada, Brazil and
The Americas altogether, cover the global oil demand growth and put a downward pressure on the prices and reduce the room of maneuver for the countries who want to control the oil production and consequently, the prices. Is this a good time, though, for that to actually happen in the context of some
Of the tensions we’re seeing in the Red Sea, several oil tankers being hit in that part of the world in addition to longer fuel times, more labor. Fatih. Do the Red Sea tensions show up more aggressively in the oil price? I think a current event, we’ll look at
The picture in the Middle East. We don’t see any of the major producing countries are affected from those tensions and the transition rules becoming longer. They may have some a marginal effect on the process. My worry is if we see a one or more than
One major oil producing countries is directly involved in the current crisis and if we see escalation of the dislocation. This may have got different. They pushed their prices up and this will be different and not good news for the global economy.
And certainly that is a risk, no doubt that opec+ are factoring in. They have that cuts coming through until the end of March. Are you are you seeing compliance with those with those opec+ cuts in terms of the output factored in? Do you expect opec+ that cartel to push
Out those cuts further into the year? So I think by and large there is good discipline. And when we look at the numbers and what they are going to decide for the next steps is of course up to those countries. But as we discussed a few minutes ago,
The inflation is a major risk for the global economy.
1 Comment
Why does this man come across as a politician?