Technical Forecast: Bitcoin’s Potential Rally and S&P 500’s Hangman Signal – Gary Wagner

Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews Gary Wagner, Editor of thegoldforecast.com. Wagner dissects the S&P 500’s surge past 5000, highlighting the technical signs pointing to potential market adjustments. He then talks about cryptocurrency volatility, specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum, offering predictions based on technical analysis and patterns. Wagner also evaluates gold’s position as a stable investment in the current economic climate, analyzing indicators for future price movements.

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron)
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Follow Gary Wagner on X: @garyswagner (https://twitter.com/garyswagner)

00:00 – Introduction & The Magnificent Seven
00:55 – S&P 500: Record Highs and Technical Analysis
02:20 – Candlestick Patterns and Market Corrections
04:15 – Fibonacci Retracements and S&P 500’s Future
06:11 – Impact of Tech Giants on Market Volatility
09:01 – Bitcoin and Ethereum: Technical Trends
13:18 – Ethereum’s Market Position and Predictions
16:13 – Gold’s Response to Economic Indicators
21:19 – Market Reactions to Federal Reserve Announcements

#bitcoin #technicalanalysis #tecnologia #ethereum #cryptotrading #cryptocurrency #gold #goldprices #economy #trading #stockmarket #stocktrading #sp500 #fibonacci #candlestickpattern
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Hey everyone I’m Jeremy saffron and this is Kito news now today on chart this with Gary Wagner we’re getting into the nitty-gritty of market trends we’ve seen the Magnificent Seven Tech Giants dominate the S&P 500 but with nvidia’s recent downturn it’s time to reassess their impact are we looking at a

Temporary setback or a deeper Market shift and Bitcoin and ethereum have been doing and enjoying high prices rather drawing both season Traders and of course newcomers what do the chart say about their next moves and with Gold’s resilience shining bright we’ll see how its traditional stability holds up in

Our current Financial landscape our resident technical analyst Gary Wagner is here to break down these Trends with technical analysis pointing of course key levels indicators and patterns to watch Gary thanks for joining us ready to dive in I certainly am and uh thanks for having me great to be here of course now

Uh let’s start on the equity side here with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs despite some indicators of breath waning uh what’s your technical read on the Market’s current strength and what should investors be watching for in the coming months here well anytime you get any Market go

To a new record high um the Traders are looking for a point to sell into that whether that becomes a fullblown correction or just a oneandone so to speak can’t be determined until later but we saw a phenomenal move in the S&P 500 uh breaking above 5,000 for the

First time in history we’re looking at a weekly chart so that we can kind of get a slower view of the overall trend and what you can see is this is of course this week which has just started this is last week in which we actually made this

Uh low that came in at around 4925 but recovered the fact that you have a small bu body real body and then a long Wick that’s at least three times the size after an uptrend is a Candlestick pattern called a hangman it’s part of the umbrella groups but it’s a very interesting

Candlestick as an individual one because you find them at the tops and bottoms if this was at the bottom it would be called a hammer so the reason that they have significance to it is because has an exaggerated low but yet it was able to recover very close to the opening

Price color not important whether it’s red or green what’s important is the body size in relation to the wick and so we get a true hangman especially on a one Candlestick pattern it has to have confirmation a confirmation would be the following candle has to have a lower low

Be should be a large red candle and a lower high this this is early in the week so it’s too early to determine if that will confirm but it’s a logical point to look for the potential for either a oneandone or a quick correction so what we’ve done is to

Determine if it does correct what would be a point to look at for it to find support we typically use a thing that’s called a a Fibonacci retracement the easiest way to describe it if a if a stock goes from a dollar to $2 you want

To see what it does at a150 that’s the 50% retracement that’s not a fib number but you look at these different levels the 23.6 and the 38 50% and 61 I haven’t put them in because I think that it wouldn’t be that deep and the other

Thing is that I have one data set that starts at these lows 41 up to the top and another data set and that’s these red lines here here that starts after the market went up and sold off a little bit and then if you notice this one red mark That’s a

61.8 It lines up with the 23.6 we call that Confluence in other words you have different data sets coming up with the same value and that to me it makes it more important that potentially a more powerful read on the market so what I am saying is that if

The market does go into a correction I don’t think it’s going to be a very deep one but I’ve been wrong probably more times than I can count well certainly but if it does move lower it could go as low I believe as about 4830 and it’s based upon this level of multiple

Agreements with two Fibonacci retracement data sets yeah you know it’s so interesting we talked about the Magnificent 7 we’re currently waiting on nvidia’s earnings but can you see the selloff in this S&P chart I mean it’s such a significant time over the past few days where it’s cooled down a little

Bit looking at that where do we have support well if it continues to move down the first level we would look at would be um this 38.2% which comes in at 4915 and it also by the way corresponds roughly to the bottom of the hangman tail the tail is the line or the

Differential between where it closed and the low of the day you see that they line up um I’ve always believed that technicals have such strength because a lot of Traders are Market technicians we’re using similar tools so when we’re all using the same tool and we’re

Looking for it to hit a point and react you can get almost the self-fulfilling prophecy but that is where I would look for the first level of support below that is around 4825 okay you know given the Divergence between the performance of the S&P 500 and equal weighted indices could you

Suggest a narrow Market rally here that’s less healthy than it appears on the surface it’s one it’s certainly more volatile especially when you’ve got seven stocks out of a huge basket of equities accounting for a large percentage of the move Nvidia being the Superstar of all

Of those now of course there’s going to be a um an earnings report coming out soon and that will have an influence on where Nvidia goes but there’s a lot of analysts that are saying it’s looking a little topheavy but that’s because it I think it’s moved up 240% year to date um

Of course it’s going to be oversold you the thing about us equities likee Commodities where many of them trade within a range when you have a long-term view of stocks they have gone up for you know over time for 20 50 100 years so at

Some point in any Market it is going to correct and it will be based on a shift in Market sentiment that’s based on new economic data or sometimes a technical level that that the Traders believe is an opportunity to pull profits which is selling and then Short Selling also but

The key to your question is a market move that’s broad based driven has less volatility obviously because it’s it’s averaging out multiple many corporations in the case of the Magnificent 7 it only takes uh a couple of them to really influence the market it’s not that it’s

More healthy or less healthy but it’s a lot more volatile and it doesn’t have the kind of vibrancy or strength from a broad-based rally meaning at any point you could see a correction and it could be deep for example if the earning report comes off way um below the

Estimates that’s their signal to go in and sell it if it comes in at or above you could see it move sideways and move higher but it is based on how well the company’s doing and the case of all equities and it’s the market sentiment of where Traders Market participants and

Investors believe it’s going to go because that’s what they’re placing their bet on not where it’s at but where they believe it will go over time right what an interesting Market let’s switch over to crypto here I mean Bitcoin and ethereum have been making some interesting moves what do the technicals

Say Gary about their short-term momentum and the potential resistant levels to watch let’s start with Bitcoin okay we are looking at a daily Japanese Candlestick chart of Bitcoin there’s a couple of studies in there but the first thing is that last time we spoke we had just hit these highs above

50,51 and you know we you asked me well how far could it go and I said at new highs of course we can’t tell but here’s the signs that we want to look for alternating candle color small candle size because there’s only two outcomes typically to to that type of a sideways

Market either it’s consolidating building a base at the higher prices as a pre precursor to moving higher or it’s time to let off a little steam and sell off so the first thing I can identify is a Japanese Candlestick pattern called a tower top a tower toop is simply when

You have multiple candles five or more that have highs roughly in the the same area and that represents uh resistance intrinsically by the fact that every time it attempted to challenge those high price points sellers came in and brought it back down so we do get a

Tower top but we did do an interesting study we did what’s called a Fibonacci extension so we started from the beginning of the last leg of this rally and that came in at uh 25,000 per Bitcoin up to this peak here at 48 and we can definitely say there it sold off

And so what we do is we measure the amount of this move here and then we start from the beginning of the correction that’s where this green line comes in and one model that we use is in an exceedingly strong wave we would look for the next rally to be about uh 0.618

Per of that that comes in at 5385 so it also confirms that it was a logical point for this to possibly conclude and go into a correction as I said right now it hasn’t give us given us a definitive indication that we will go into a correction but it does seem

Likely a lot more likely than when all we saw were series of new highs new highs new highs which is what happened last time we talked yeah and last time we talked too we were talking a little bit about the inflows of the new SP Bitcoin ETFs

Coming to the market I’m curious can you see a little bit of that in the chart you know the rumor comes out people sell the sell their Bitcoin but the inflows are still active so is this a new reality well anytime there’s the launching of of a new asset class into

Electronically uh traded funds that’s going to have a tremendous effect on the value of the underlying asset without a question of a doubt and we can see without any question and I don’t know when that was implemented but the big move began uh really on the 21st of

January that’s when it hit these lows and began to move higher um I’m gonna have to ask my resident expert Joseph Wagner when did they start the uh fund Joey on like January 10th on the 10th or 11th so it comes in this is the 10th

Right here you see it continuing to sell out that’s at out profit taking um because immediately after the launch there was profit coming out of it and then this is the inflow that pivot curious here let’s uh let’s switch over to ethereum because it’s been quite impressive uh I’m curious It’s been

Breaking out here get into ethereum what are you seeing what are the resistance levels are we seeing a little bit of selloff here gay well we have we’ve identified a key pattern that indicates a potential for a pivot or reversal to the downside but what we’re seeing is this the move above

3000 I’d have to look historically but if it has been here it’s been a while but that’s a new record for this period And so that is what I believe brought on the possibility of taking profits here this two-day pattern in engulfing bearish is when you have a long

Uptrend with a strong green candle the green candle closes at the top a red candle opens at the top and closes at the bottom so you get this large green candle followed by an open just above the previous open and it closes well below that in other words the red candle

Completely engulfs it you do not take this call unless you get a confirming candle which would be lower low lower high as well as a large red candle because I can show you points for example when here’s an engulfing uh bearish where nothing came out of it but

It also did not confirm so con confirmation in these short-term patterns is absolutely essential as well as other technical studies showing you that that that conclusion makes some sense that has there’s agreement between multiple technical studies okay so not likely that there’s a reversal here it’s it’s possible it’s

Possible but we have to see if in fact tomorrow we get a strong down date that means this pattern has reversed that doesn’t mean we’re going to go into a deep correction but it it does indicate that there’s a much higher probability that it’s reached a short-term top it’s

Hit a new price High not a record high from what I understand but a new price high for this time period it’s a good time to take profits if if you’ve been long and if you’re looking to short it in the Futures Market it’s a good time to implement

That strategy and that’s why it’s such a deep selloff because when we look at um ethereum it opened at $ 3,20 and it traded to a low but closed at 2903 right here and the low itself was below that that is a pretty strong candle size if you

Look at some of the downtrends we really want to look at the the range in between the open and closing price that’s what is most important in Japanese candlesticks and how it differs from how one interprets a bar chart okay I want to talk a little bit about gold because

I know you keep an eye on that quite heavily obviously we do too and you know gold has been climbing steadily from a technical analyst perspective I’m curious you know what are the key indicators that might suggest a continuation or maybe a reversal of this trend well first of all I have to

Acknowledge on the the last show we did I was looking at the fact that we had a compression triangle a series of higher lows and lower highs and typically it will that break to the prevalent Trend Direction which would have meant up I think I even had an up Arrow I also said

That that really depends on the economic data coming out specifically the CPI when the CPI was released that’s this large red candle here that’s when it broke um it was near the Apex it breaks to the downside but that is shortlived because you get this small body Candle

On the following uh day which is called a doy one of the most important Candlestick types because a doe has a very very small body differ Siz Wicks and what it represents is the Japanese Trader views each trading session is a battle and the result of that battle can be visually

Expressed in a Candlestick so for example on this large red candle it opened here closed near the lows what what that means is that the bearish faction absolutely dominated and controlled price change during that day the opposite with a green candle it opens and then closes higher and so in

That case the bullish Factor those participants with bullish Market sentiment had the most um influence on the market now when you get like a doy which is what we’re getting here today as well as at this bottom what that signifies is that neither the Bulls nor

The Bears were able to dominate and it can mean either a pivot or consolidation so it’s very interesting in the fact fact that all it is showing us is there was no dominant force between those two fighting factions so once the market came down it hit this slow at 1996 and

What followed was a series of concurrent higher highs higher closes large green candles and I draw your attention to this dash line because that was the lower level support line support and resistance are one of the same in other words I think I mentioned this last time

It depending on if you’re on the second floor and you look down that support if you’re on the first floor and um and you look up that’s resistance but it’s the same wall so this is now our resistance levels and you can see that it touched

Close to it today’s high came right up to it and I do expect it to drop a little bit and that of course will be based on dollar strength um what the FED has to to say as the minutes become reviewed over this next week but I

Believe that it will come down to anywhere between uh 2025 or about 2020 and then move back into bullish momentum that’s what the charts tell us right how quick is that bullish momentum when we get that reversal here is that a matter of a month or is that a little bit longer

Term you what we look for is a V first of all anytime a Market comes down with red candles you want to see a doy and then a shift to green and then follow through so this we’ve already gotten a reversal now whether or not that that

Indicates we’re going to go back to a rally mode or we’re just simply seeing a neat jerk reaction to the CPI and a return to that if it breaks above this trend line right here so call it 244 then We’re Off to the Races and then

We look to carry this over and a break above that and then our new Target would be uh 2073 it’s based on this top and it roughly matches up real roughly with um these highs here and then of course above that is 2100 first we have to

Break Above This resistance line and if it does that immediately it tells us the Market’s exceedingly strong if it corrects in a shallow manner it tells us that it just reacted to the CPI and then they after uh mitigation on what that said meaning that although it came in a

Little bit different or a little hotter than expected it was by a tent of a point but when you compare that number to December it’s still shrinking um and so it wasn’t you know you typically when when the FED comes out and says stuff and when new um economic report come out

You always always get that knee-jerk reaction especially when pow takes the podium it’s almost uh comical to watch because they move the market on every word he says the expression the the word track that he’s using whether he takes a word out or puts it in and you’ll see gold move up

Tremendously or down tremendously in a very volatile Manner and it doesn’t mean it’s headed down or headed up because it’s just reacting very very we call that noise when it’s reacting to everything that’s being said so to answer your question the the pivot occurs very quickly in in days or weeks

Not months on a short-term basis because we’re looking at a daily chart you know as investors navigate this what we’ve been talking about uh you know we got high tech stock valuations cryptocurrency volatility does gold technically analysis here indicate that it remains a safe haven or are there some signs that that could

Change I believe that it will always act as a safe haven asset when there is a reason for the need for Safe Haven assets like uh geopolitical unrest economic upheaval things of that nature it will always have that intrinsic value because in essence gold price hasn’t really changed in terms of its buying

Power it’s the dollar that continues to decline over time in terms of its buying power not like the dollar Index which is looking at the dollar relative to a basket of other currencies but when you think of what a $20 bill bought you 10 years ago or 20 years ago and now that

It might buy you two cups of coffee at Starbucks you can see there’s the dollar doesn’t have that same buying power but the same amount of gold gold would in other words whatever cost in Gold whatever the the fractional amount would be it would be roughly the same now so

It also acts as a hedge against inflation but it isn’t a tight correlation you don’t see a move instantly and then lastly because it’s paired against the US dollar there’s has to be in an intrinsic 100% negative correlation dollar strength equals uh a negative influence on gold that doesn’t mean gold

Will close lower but it’s got to overcome that to move higher before it can move higher so it’s the dollar and inflation it’s very sensitive to and it will always act when needed as a safe haven asset that’s been around for Generations I don’t see that ever uh

Not being a component because gold has an intrinsic value yeah absolutely and was that $20 on tip as well Gary or was thank you again for coming up yeah I appreciate making the time for this uh we’ll be watching for the fomc minutes and we’ll have more on that but

Uh thanks Gary I appreciate Gary Wagner our resident technical analyst breaking it down for us today see you next week thanks for having me thank you and I’m Jerry saffron for Kiko news don’t forget to subscribe to our Channel and visit k.com for the latest we’ll see you next time