MUST WATCH: Gold Market in Danger After This! | Jim Rickards

#silverprice #goldprice #silver
MUST WATCH: Gold Market in Danger After This! | Jim Rickards

#silverprice #goldprice #silver #silverstacking #goldrate #gold #goldratetoday #silversqueeze

The next level of analysis is well what’s going to happen interest rates everybody wants to know that um in my view they’ve peaked um they’re going to come down uh and if you like that action you might prefer the 10year note because uh a longer maturity has a higher you

Know not to get two technical it’s called D1 dollar value one basis point what it means is that so interest rates come down a certain amount you know 25 basis points 50 basis points or whatever and I said bond prices go up which they

Do but how much do they go up well the answer is the longer the maturity the more they go up they’re more volatile so the big question is have rates peaked and I would say they have and I based that what I said earlier about the economy if we’re going into a recession

We’re going into a Slowdown we’re looking at all kinds of geopolitical risk stocks are coming down then interest rates are going to come down too so when we say Bond markets amount we have to be careful which bond market I’m talking about the US treasury bond market um you know the sure short-term

Treasuries you know four month bills six-month bills up to one year from from zero to one year they’re called B bills from two years to 20 years they’re called notes and the 30 years called a bond so if you’re an expert you say bills notes and bonds but they’re all

Treasury Securities but uh so so I just want to be spefic we’re not talking about corporate bonds just to be clear because those May uh do very poorly if if if a companies going to underperform we’re going to go into recession we’re going to have a um you’re going to see

Bankrupts increase of bond those corporate bonds are going to get hammered but uh certainly junk bonds but um so talking about us treasuries the funny thing now is that the highest yields in the US Treasury Market are in like a six-month Bill like wait a second

You know should shouldn’t I get more if I buy a 30-year Bond or shouldn’t I get more if I buy a 10-year note um it’s a longer maturity more stuff can happen inflation you know credit downgrades the United States uh you know Bank freezes all those things can happen I

Want a higher interest rate for my longer term security that’s usually the way the Y curve looks it’s kind of goes it’s upward sloping the longer the maturity the higher the rate that’s not true today the highest maturities are right around um six-month bills one-year Bills going out to two-year notes when

You get to the 10year note um you actually get a lower interest rate lower what’s called yield of maturity than you do on a two-year note so uh this the interesting thing about two years is you get a high rate uh but it’s less volatile than a 10-year note uh it’s

More liquid I mean 10e notes are pretty liquid but but two-e notes are very liquid um so you can actually have the best of both worlds you can have a shorter maturity which means less risk in some ways and a higher interest rate so it’s like like I said The Best of

Both Worlds but the highest interest rate is actually from six months to one year so those are very very safe security Securities and they’re paying like five and a quarter you know U not quite five and a half but you know well between five and a quar and 5 and a half

Percent for six month for six Monon treasury bill why wouldn’t you just buy one of those I mean it’s more than what you get in the bank now the answer is um oh yeah Jim that sounds good but if interest rates go up even more you’re

Going to lose money on on your Capital that the value of the note or Bond will go down if interest rates go up that’s that’s Bond math 101 you rates go up prices go down the opposite true rates go down prices go up so you can make a

Lose money but that inverse relationship kind of throws a lot of people but that’s just how it works um so yeah buying a 2-year note that yields about 5.1% very liquid very safe uh good return more than your bank will pay you more than most stocks will pay you uh

Why wouldn’t you do that well the answer is if you think the two-year not is going to go to 6% you might not like it because you’re going to you know if you hold it for two years you’ll get your money back but if you want to sell in the meantime you’re

Going to lose you’re going to have a capital loss I think they’re coming down from here on out but uh if you accept that view then the 10year node is going to have the biggest capital gains now again it’s riskier when I say risky I’m talking about Market risk I’m not

Talking about credit risk you are going to get your money back but from a but from a market risk point of view if you had to sell it you know a year from now or six months from now for that matter uh if rates go up you’re going to lose a

Little money on the um on the value of the note itself but uh but if rates come down not only do you get the 5% interest rate which is sweet but you’re going to have a capital gain on the Note because that’s what happens when rates come down

So the big question is have rates peaked and I would say they have and I based that what I said earlier about the economy if we’re going into a recession we’re going into a Slowdown we’re looking at all kinds of geopolitical risk stocks are coming down then

Interest rates are going to come down too uh so uh so that’s so so again 10year note is riskier uh from a market point of view not risky from a credit point of view good yield and a lot of capital gains potential us is heading into recession and we may be in a

Recession everyone’s like wait a second yesterday GDP was up 5% and it was that was the number for for the uh it was the first government estimate for the third quarter of 2023 it was up 5% but it was very heavy on consumption and very heavy on inventory so when those two things

Well consumption obviously people realize when wholesalers and Distributors build up inventory that counts as GDP well it’s fine to build up inventory if people are buying the stuff but if they don’t buy the stuff and you’re up to the rafter and inventory you got to start writing it down this is

Where you see you know you go to the Gap and you get like 10 shirts and five pairs of jeans for 30 bucks I mean this is what happens they they slash prices they do two for one sales they just move the merchandise and particularly in certain areas stuff goes out of style

You know in the fashion industry is notorious you know who wants last year’s you know coat or whatever um so uh so then so then the inventory situation comes down to the consumer are people buying stuff it looks like uh the consumer hit the brakes in August now the second quarters July August

September sometime around mid to late August after two pretty strong months and they were strong um the the the consumers just hit the brakes now that was they had done enough to make the third quarter strong but going into the fourth quarter they may just you know

Not show up for the game a couple reasons for that number one is during the pandemic you go back to 2020 2021 what was going on well starting with Trump in uh I think June 2020 he gave everybody a $1,400 check if if you got a

Heartbeat you got a check um and then Trump did it again in December 20 uh 2020 sorry um just before he left office it was another $600 check Biden comes in and says I can top that and Biden does in February or uh February 2021 right

After he was sworn in here comes another $1600 check and then then there was build back better the inflation reduction act which is actually the greenish scam I mean that we were spending two well not spending we were running deficits uh of $2 trillion doll a year for about4 or

Five years that the total spending was higher than that but that was the the deficit alone was about two trillionaire